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Posts Tagged ‘weather alert’

Beryl now gone, Atlantic hurricane season begins…..

Posted by Hurricane Expert on May 31, 2012

Beryl rainfall

Even before the official start of the Atlantic 2012 hurricane season, we have seen two tropical storms. Many years there is no activity up to this point. Tropical storms Alberto and Beryl both formed off of the Southeastern U.S. coast before eventually moving northeast into the Atlantic.

Is this a sign of a very busy season? Probably not, but the extended tropical prognositcations have been wrong before. Season forecasts suggest a “normal” amount of tropical cyclones in the Atlantic basin compared with what has been observed over the past few decades.

I will be doing something a little different this year. I have a iphone / ipad app called The Global Travel Forecast. I produce 3 day video forecasts for different regions around the globe. One of the regions is the Caribbean where I cover tropical weather. You can also get that same forecast on my tropicalweather.net site. Please tell your friends to stop by. Thanks!

Rich Johnson – Tropicalweather.net

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2012 Atlantic hurricane season outlook

Posted by Hurricane Expert on March 27, 2012

2012 Atlantic hurricane season outlook

Dr. Bill Gray and Dr. Phip Klotzbock of Colorado State University have given a hint to their Atlantic hurricane season outlook. It appears that the eastern equatorial Pacific is warming signaling the start of an El Nino event. This is indicative of lesser than normal tropical cyclones in the Atlantic basin. Cooler waters in the Atlantic also suggest a lower than normal tropical cyclone season.

This forecast is based on the new “normal” tropical cyclone frequency since 1995 where there has been a marked upswing in the numbers of tropical cyclones in the Atlantic basin. This hurricane season is predicted to be close to the old “normal” of ten tropical storms of which six become hurricanes and one or two of those major hurricanes. A complete seasonal outlook will be realeased on April 4.

Rich Johnson – Tropicalweather.net

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Recap of the 2011 Atlantic Hurricane Season

Posted by Hurricane Expert on February 6, 2012

2011 Atlantic hurricane season recap


Before we start thinking about the upcoming hurricane season, let’s take a look back….

The 2011 Atlantic hurricane season produced 19 tropical storms of which seven became hurricanes. Of those seven hurricanes four became major hurricanes. As a reminder, a major hurricane is signified as a category three or higher on the Saffir-Simpson wind scale. ( winds of 111 mph or stronger ).

The United States was fortunate again, making this the six year in a row that there was not a landfalling major hurricane. The last was hurricane Wilma in 2005 when it hit southwest Florida in late October.

The hurricane season took an unusual start. There were eight tropical storms before a hurricane formed. That was Hurricane Irene which affected the Mid-Atlantic and Northeastern U.S. Two tropical storms did hit the U.S. in 2011. Don moved into south Texas in late July and Lee hit the central Louisiana coast in early September.

It was interesting to note that Bermuda was surrounded by several tropical cyclones but none made a direct hit. Powerful Ophelia steered well to the east sparing the island.

We’ll take a look at the upcoming 2012 hurricane season at a later date.

Rich Johnson – Tropicalweather.net

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Irene heading into the northern Caribbean

Posted by Hurricane Expert on August 21, 2011

Irene near the Leewards

Tropical storm Irene will be disturbing travelers and residents of the northern Caribbean, Bahamas, Turks and Caicos and U.S. eastern seaboard over the next seven days. The track of Irene will be extremely important. As of this time, it appears that the track of Irene will take it over the northern Antilles then over or just east of Florida. The more land Irene encounters the more the circulation will get disturbed and inhibit development, especially Hispaniola (Dominican Republic and Haiti). A big concern is still the potential for flash flooding in Haiti where there is a history of large loss of life from tropical cyclones.

For interests in the U.S. the more favorable track would be directly up the Florida peninsula and into the Southeastern U.S. This would allow for beneficial rain and stop any further development. Keep in mind that there would possibly be problems with flash flooding, isolated tornadoes and wind / surge damage farther south. If Irene stays a little east of Florida, strengthening would continue increasing the damage potential from Florida into the Southeastern / Mid-Atlantic states.

It would be wise to follow the progress of Irene if you live or will be traveling in these threat areas. Remember – now is the time to prepare for the possible impacts from a hurricane, not the day before! Be safe and God bless!

Be sure to check out my forecasts on the message boards at Tropicalweather.net

Rich Johnson – Tropicalweather.net

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Tropics about to get more active

Posted by Hurricane Expert on August 18, 2011

Tropical Disturbance

Two tropical disturbances have potential for development in the Atlantic basin over the next several days. Of immediate concern is a tropical disturbance in the western Caribbean. It has the potential to be classified as a depression later today and could be a tropical storm before landfall this weekend near Belize.

The second tropical disturbance is much more worrysome. Forecast models for several days have been bringing a hurricane near the northern Caribbean and Florida by mid to late next week. I don’t put too much faith in the long range computer models since they “cry wolf” many times. It does concern me though that the models have been very persistent in forecasting this scenario for a number of days. This morning satellite imagery shows a more well defined disturbance in the central Atlantic which may point to the fact that the models knew what they were doing all along.

In any case residents and travelers to these parts of the tropics should follow both features, especially the central Atlantic tropical disturbance.

Be sure to check out my forecasts on the message boards at Tropicalweather.net

Rich Johnson – Tropicalweather.net
Weather / Hurricane Message boards
Facts about Lightning
Facts about hurricanes
Facts about Thunderstorms
Facts about Tornadoes

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Calvin in the Pacific – Caribbean unsettled

Posted by Hurricane Expert on July 7, 2011

Calvin

Calvin west of Mexico

So far it looks like the Atlantic hurricane basin is heading to an average season as the european forecasters have said. Granted that it could change fast at any time though. If you recall, U.S. forecasters were calling for another above average year. At this time we have had one tropical storm which is average for early July.

As of now an unclassified tropical cyclone is churning in the eastern Pacific and will definitely be named by the hurricane center later today. As of my estimate it is now a tropical depression and will be a storm this afternoon.

For the Caribbean travelers – there are no imminent threats but still unsettled weather. A string of upper air troughs is creasting some heavy showers from the northwest Caribbean to Puerto Rico and the Leewards. Enjoy your cruises, even it there is a (little) rain.

Be sure to check out my forecasts at Tropicalweather.net

Rich Johnson – Tropicalweather.net
Weather / Hurricane Message boards
Facts about Lightning
Facts about hurricanes
Facts about Thunderstorms
Facts about Tornadoes

Sunrise / Sunset times
Beach water temps
Caribbean weather averages
weather channel

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First official tropical system may try to form over next serval days in Gulf

Posted by Hurricane Expert on June 23, 2011

Tropical forecast models have been insisting that a tropical cyclone will form in the northwestern Caribbean or western Gulf over the next several days. The models generally take the system toward the Texas coast or northwestern Mexican east coast. Remember forecast models can be fickle. We are watching them closely but are not too concerned at this time. Interests on the Texas coast over the next week should keep an eye on this system.

Rich Johnson – Tropicalweather.net
Weather / Hurricane Message boards
Facts about Lightning
Facts about hurricanes
Facts about Thunderstorms
Facts about Tornadoes

Sunrise / Sunset times
Beach water temps
Caribbean weather averages
weather channel

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Hurricane Adrian starts the eastern Pacific hurricane season strong

Posted by Hurricane Expert on June 11, 2011

This slideshow requires JavaScript.

Hurricane Adrian started the eastern Pacific hurricane season with a bang. It strengthened into a category 4 hurricane west of Mexico to 140 mph late Thursday into early Friday. It ran the “typical” route for a hurricane in the eastern Pacific basin where it formed in the monsoon trough south of Mexico and moved on a west northwesterly course. It encounted colder water which robbed its energy source and weakened rapidly. The slideshow shows different satellite perspectives of Adrian: Visible, I.R. and Rainbow enhancement.

Rich Johnson – Tropicalweather.net
Weather / Hurricane Message boards
Facts about Lightning
Facts about hurricanes
Facts about Thunderstorms
Facts about Tornadoes

Sunrise / Sunset times
Beach water temps
Caribbean weather averages
weather channel

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Atlantic hurricane season 2011 begins Wednesday

Posted by Hurricane Expert on May 31, 2011

hurricane season 2011

The 2011 Atlantic hurricane season is here and is predicted to be an active one similar to last year. Contrary to some reports, this is not due to warmer than normal water in the Atlantic nor is a result from climate change. A large area of warmer than normal water may have some part in a more active hurricane season, but is not the overriding factor. Global weather weather patterns influenced by El Nino and La Nina as well as major a ocean circulation in the Atlantic are much larger features.

The number of tropical cyclones in the Atlantic basin are also cyclical. We have been in an “up” cycle since the mid 1990’s and will likely be in this cycle for another 10-15 years.

Regardless, of the amount of hurricanes expected, you should be finishing preseason hurricane preparedness. Here are some helpful tips on how to do just that: – Preseason hurricane preparedness

Don’t get caught without properly preparing for this hurricane season. Now is the time to prepare, not two days before a hurricane strikes!

Rich Johnson – Tropicalweather.net
Weather / Hurricane Message boards
Facts about Lightning
Facts about hurricanes
Facts about Thunderstorms
Facts about Tornadoes

Sunrise / Sunset times
Beach water temps
Caribbean weather averages
weather channel

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2011 hurricane season prediction

Posted by Hurricane Expert on May 9, 2011

Windwards / Leewards

My colleagues Dr. Phil Klotzback and Dr. Bill Gray announced at the hurricane conference in Atlanta that they are predicting 16 tropical storms of which 9 will become hurricanes and 5 will become major hurricanes. The long term average for hurrianes in the Atlantic basin are 10 tropical storms of which 6 become hurricanes and 3 major hurricanes.

A major hurricane is one considered a category 3,4 or 5 on ths Saffir – Simpson hurriane wind scale. Winds must be at least 111 mph sustained to be classified as a category 3. Remember, simply because we are expecting more hurricanes does not mean more landfalls. It does increase the risk though. Stay vigilant – stay prepared.

Rich Johnson – Tropicalweather.net
Weather / Hurricane Message boards
Facts about Lightning
Facts about Thunderstorms
Facts about Tornadoes

Sunrise / Sunset times
Beach water temps
Caribbean weather averages
weather channel

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