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Posts Tagged ‘tropicalweather’

Tropical Cyclone Cebile

Posted by Hurricane Expert on February 1, 2018

Tropical Cyclone Cebile is over the southern Indian Ocean.  It is what as know to us here in the U.S. as a category four hurricane.  It is spinning “backwards”, as low pressure systems in the southern hemisphere spin clockwise.  It is posing now harm to land at this time.

Cebile

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Hurricane Arthur is no Sandy

Posted by Hurricane Expert on July 4, 2014

arthur_29

Hurricane Arthur is making is way up the eastern seaboard on the 4th of July. This time no direct landfall will occur in the Northeast. Arthur will loose its tropical characteristics as did Sandy, over the cooler water off of the Mid-Atlantic coast. The difference this time is that Arthur will follow a more normal track up the coast as opposed to a turn to the west into the coast.

Arthur made landfall on the coast of North Carolina, but with minimal effects compared with Sandy. Over 20 thousand were without power. Some wind damage and water damage were also seen in the locations that don’t fare so well with these type of storms. Even though Arthur had estimated sustained winds of 100 mph, few if any gusts to that strength were noted. Ft. Macon, NC had a gust to 87 mph. Hatteras had a wind gust to 71 mph before the instrument stopped reporting. It is interesting to note that in a 100 mph hurricane gusts should have been measured to at least 115 mph. If Arthur was over forecast strength wise, the hurricane center did an excellent job in forecasting the track. Thankfully it stayed east of the populated Northeast.

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Beryl heading for Jacksonville, FL

Posted by Hurricane Expert on May 27, 2012

Subtropical storm Beryl


A rare landfall of a tropical cyclone will occur late today near Jacksonville, FL. Because of the shape of the coastline near Jacksonville, most tropical cyclones pass to the east offshore. More times than not, this area gets “side swiped” as a tropical storm or hurricane moves by. This time a wsw motion will carry Subtropical storm Beryl into the northeast Florida coast.

It is interesting to note that the official Atlantic hurricane season hasn’t even started – it begins on June 1st. Last week tropical storm Alberto nearly made a landfall in this same location. Alberto stalled about 50 – 100 miles east of the coast then moved away. Beryl will make landfall as a tropical storm as it completely loses subtropical characteristics today. Don’t look for much damage either as weather reporters line up on the coast to “inform” us. This storm will be more of a help as it brings very beneficial rainfall to north Florida and south Georgia. Check out tropicalweather.net for the latest.
Rich Johnson – Tropicalweather.net

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2012 Atlantic hurricane season outlook

Posted by Hurricane Expert on March 27, 2012

2012 Atlantic hurricane season outlook

Dr. Bill Gray and Dr. Phip Klotzbock of Colorado State University have given a hint to their Atlantic hurricane season outlook. It appears that the eastern equatorial Pacific is warming signaling the start of an El Nino event. This is indicative of lesser than normal tropical cyclones in the Atlantic basin. Cooler waters in the Atlantic also suggest a lower than normal tropical cyclone season.

This forecast is based on the new “normal” tropical cyclone frequency since 1995 where there has been a marked upswing in the numbers of tropical cyclones in the Atlantic basin. This hurricane season is predicted to be close to the old “normal” of ten tropical storms of which six become hurricanes and one or two of those major hurricanes. A complete seasonal outlook will be realeased on April 4.

Rich Johnson – Tropicalweather.net

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Irene heading into the northern Caribbean

Posted by Hurricane Expert on August 21, 2011

Irene near the Leewards

Tropical storm Irene will be disturbing travelers and residents of the northern Caribbean, Bahamas, Turks and Caicos and U.S. eastern seaboard over the next seven days. The track of Irene will be extremely important. As of this time, it appears that the track of Irene will take it over the northern Antilles then over or just east of Florida. The more land Irene encounters the more the circulation will get disturbed and inhibit development, especially Hispaniola (Dominican Republic and Haiti). A big concern is still the potential for flash flooding in Haiti where there is a history of large loss of life from tropical cyclones.

For interests in the U.S. the more favorable track would be directly up the Florida peninsula and into the Southeastern U.S. This would allow for beneficial rain and stop any further development. Keep in mind that there would possibly be problems with flash flooding, isolated tornadoes and wind / surge damage farther south. If Irene stays a little east of Florida, strengthening would continue increasing the damage potential from Florida into the Southeastern / Mid-Atlantic states.

It would be wise to follow the progress of Irene if you live or will be traveling in these threat areas. Remember – now is the time to prepare for the possible impacts from a hurricane, not the day before! Be safe and God bless!

Be sure to check out my forecasts on the message boards at Tropicalweather.net

Rich Johnson – Tropicalweather.net

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Emily in Caribbean

Posted by Hurricane Expert on August 3, 2011

tropical storm Emily

Tropical storm Emily

Tropical storm Emily has been badly sheared and is not as strong as indicated. It this is the case it will head farther west than all of the models that you have been shown on TV. Check out my tropicalweather.net website for the latest on EMily.

Be sure to check out my forecasts at Tropicalweather.net

Rich Johnson – Tropicalweather.net
Weather / Hurricane Message boards
Facts about Lightning
Facts about hurricanes
Facts about Thunderstorms
Facts about Tornadoes

Sunrise / Sunset times
Beach water temps
Caribbean weather averages
weather channel

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Emily forming east of the Lesser Antilles

Posted by Hurricane Expert on July 31, 2011

emily forming

Emily Forming east of Antilles

The next named tropical system is well on its way. It is several hundred miles east of the Lesser Antilles this morning. The forecast track takes it into the Leewards over the next 2-3 days. After that, most models predict it to recurve east of the Bahamas with a few taking it into the Bahamas by next weekend. Keep in mind that the low hasn’t quite formed yet. Because of this forecast models can have significant errors.

Speculation has already started and no doubt the media outlets will be cranking up the hype machines to draw in big ratings money. To the media – remember… hurricanes hype themselves – stay calm – you can serve the public better that way!

Be sure to check out my forecasts at Tropicalweather.net

Rich Johnson – Tropicalweather.net
Weather / Hurricane Message boards
Facts about Lightning
Facts about hurricanes
Facts about Thunderstorms
Facts about Tornadoes

Sunrise / Sunset times
Beach water temps
Caribbean weather averages
weather channel

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First official tropical system may try to form over next serval days in Gulf

Posted by Hurricane Expert on June 23, 2011

Tropical forecast models have been insisting that a tropical cyclone will form in the northwestern Caribbean or western Gulf over the next several days. The models generally take the system toward the Texas coast or northwestern Mexican east coast. Remember forecast models can be fickle. We are watching them closely but are not too concerned at this time. Interests on the Texas coast over the next week should keep an eye on this system.

Rich Johnson – Tropicalweather.net
Weather / Hurricane Message boards
Facts about Lightning
Facts about hurricanes
Facts about Thunderstorms
Facts about Tornadoes

Sunrise / Sunset times
Beach water temps
Caribbean weather averages
weather channel

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Atlantic hurricane season 2011 begins Wednesday

Posted by Hurricane Expert on May 31, 2011

hurricane season 2011

The 2011 Atlantic hurricane season is here and is predicted to be an active one similar to last year. Contrary to some reports, this is not due to warmer than normal water in the Atlantic nor is a result from climate change. A large area of warmer than normal water may have some part in a more active hurricane season, but is not the overriding factor. Global weather weather patterns influenced by El Nino and La Nina as well as major a ocean circulation in the Atlantic are much larger features.

The number of tropical cyclones in the Atlantic basin are also cyclical. We have been in an “up” cycle since the mid 1990’s and will likely be in this cycle for another 10-15 years.

Regardless, of the amount of hurricanes expected, you should be finishing preseason hurricane preparedness. Here are some helpful tips on how to do just that: – Preseason hurricane preparedness

Don’t get caught without properly preparing for this hurricane season. Now is the time to prepare, not two days before a hurricane strikes!

Rich Johnson – Tropicalweather.net
Weather / Hurricane Message boards
Facts about Lightning
Facts about hurricanes
Facts about Thunderstorms
Facts about Tornadoes

Sunrise / Sunset times
Beach water temps
Caribbean weather averages
weather channel

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2011 hurricane season prediction

Posted by Hurricane Expert on May 9, 2011

Windwards / Leewards

My colleagues Dr. Phil Klotzback and Dr. Bill Gray announced at the hurricane conference in Atlanta that they are predicting 16 tropical storms of which 9 will become hurricanes and 5 will become major hurricanes. The long term average for hurrianes in the Atlantic basin are 10 tropical storms of which 6 become hurricanes and 3 major hurricanes.

A major hurricane is one considered a category 3,4 or 5 on ths Saffir – Simpson hurriane wind scale. Winds must be at least 111 mph sustained to be classified as a category 3. Remember, simply because we are expecting more hurricanes does not mean more landfalls. It does increase the risk though. Stay vigilant – stay prepared.

Rich Johnson – Tropicalweather.net
Weather / Hurricane Message boards
Facts about Lightning
Facts about Thunderstorms
Facts about Tornadoes

Sunrise / Sunset times
Beach water temps
Caribbean weather averages
weather channel

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