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Tropical cyclone to develop in Caribbean this week?

Posted by Hurricane Expert on September 27, 2010

Tropical Weather

Tropical Weather

For many days now the forecast models have been hinting at a tropical cyclone developing in the northwest Caribbean. We had Matthew move into Honduras and Nicaragua a few days ago and now is slowly “spinning down” in southern Mexico. It continues to bring heavy rain.

It now appears that one or two tropical cyclones will develop in the northwest Caribbean this week and move across western Cuba and in the direction of south Florida. The first may be a tropical or subtropical system that develops and moves along the southeast coast of Florida and is due to move north toward the Carolinas along a stalled front.

After this system, the models are still developing another tropical system that may also move across western Cuba and north toward the general direction of south Florida or the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. Remember, longer range forecasts are subject to larger errors. It’s certainly worth keeping an eye on though. I will update my tropical weather forecasts as usual on my Tropicalweather.net weather message board. See you there!

Rich Johnson – Tropicalweather.net
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Atlantic Hurricane season starts June 1

Posted by Hurricane Expert on May 27, 2010

Greg Long, Jamie Sterling

Greg Long, Jamie Sterling Surfing

The Atlantic hurricane season begins June 1.

NOAA predicts as many as 23 named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season, with three to seven becoming serious enough to be classified as major hurricanes. The agency worries that as many as 14 could turn into hurricanes.

On average, 10 storms are named of which 6 become hurricanes,, of those 2-3 become major hurricanes which is a category 3,4 or 5. Since 1997, the averages have increased to about 15 named storms of which 8 become hurricanes and of those 4 major hurricanes.

The reasoning behind the forecast is due to the fact that El Nino has weakened and a La Nina may be forming. There is a slight correlation between a La Nina event and upswing in activity.

Check my website on the latest hurricane forecasts. We simply do not copy the National Hurricane Center’s forecasts. We make our own forecasts and add expert opinion to the Hurricane Center’s forecast also. Check Tropicalweather.net’s forecasts before traveling to the tropics during hurricane season!

Rich Johnson – Tropicalweather.net

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Nor’easter to batter snow weary region Feb 10-11

Posted by Hurricane Expert on February 9, 2010

Nor'easter Feb 10-11

Nor'easter Feb 10-11

The Mid-Atlantic is about to get blasted by another blizzard. Old Man Winter is kicking the new kid on the block – global warming out of town. The latest forecast calls for another 12-18 inches of snow from Washington D.C. to Baltimore to Philadelphia then northward past New York City and Boston. This time is will be more of the typical snow storm track with all of the Northeast U.S. coast getting battered. Previous storms left New York City and Boston with little snow at all. The December blizzard and early February blizzard hit the Mid-Atlantic hard but the storm track steered the heavy snow out to sea after that. Cold weather is locked in for another couple of weeks after the storm.

Last weeks epic snow event left a massive amount of snow from the mountains of West Virginia to Washington D.C. to Baltimore to Philadelphia region. 30-40 inches of snow fell in this zone with thundersnow being reported in the hardest hit regions. This storm ns some cases was probably the all time worst on record, for other loccations a near miss, coming in second or third place for most snow.

It is ironic that with Global Warming being such a hot topic in DC that the politicians have been visited with these crippling snowstorms. There’s still time to predict another ice age reminiscent of the 1970’s right?

Rich Johnson – Tropicalweather.net

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“Hurricane Ida” in the Gulf of Mexico

Posted by Hurricane Expert on November 9, 2009

Ida in the gulf of Mexico

Ida in the Gulf of Mexico


Excellent news for travelers and those living on the north Gulf of Mexico coast. Ida in reality is no longer a hurricane. There has been a tremendous transformation overnight of Ida’s structure. For the latest on the tropics please visit my hurricane message board.

Rich Johnson – Tropicalweather.net

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Ida likely to make a comeback…travelers beware.

Posted by Hurricane Expert on November 5, 2009

ida over Nicaragua

Ida over Nicaragua

Ida developed in the southwestern Caribbean Sea in the monsoon trough. It quickly developed and moved into Nicaragua where it has been bringing heavy rain to the area. Officially classified as a minimal hurricane just before landfall, Ida has now weakened to a tropical depression over land.

As Ida heads back over the warm waters of the northwestern Caribbean Sea it will likely strengthen again. Interests in the northwest Caribbean should follow the progress of Ida….which could be for another week. Check my Atlantic hurricane updates for the latest.

Rich Johnson – Tropicalweather.net

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Subtropical storm forming east of Bermuda?

Posted by Hurricane Expert on November 1, 2009

subtropical low

Subtropical Low forming?


Typically by the time November is here the Atlantic hurricane season is about over. If any tropical cyclones form, its usually in the southwest Caribbean to east of the Bahamas into the central Atlantic.

That’s exactly what were observing now. A very strong upper low is threatening to gain some tropical characteristics. Head over to my Atlantic hurricane update to keep updated.

Rich Johnson – Tropicalweather.net

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Tropical activity picking up in Atlantic

Posted by Hurricane Expert on September 19, 2009

Sail boat off of North Carolina Coast

Sail boat off of North Carolina Coast


After being unusually inactive during the peak of hurricane season, tropical activity is starting to pick up again.

Remember powerful hurricane Fred? Fred went down in the record books as the most powerful hurricane noted so far southeast in the Atlantic Ocean. Well, Fred may be making a visit to the northern Bahamas and Southeastern U.S. over the next couple of days. Don’t get worried though! What’s left of Fred is now only a strong tropical wave with showers and storms. Rain chances will increase in the northern Bahamas and Southeast U.S. with Fred’s remnants.

It looks like a new tropical depression has formed east of the Lesser Antillies. If strengthening continues it would be called Grace. For the latest on the tropical weather news please check out my hurricane forecasts.

Rich Johnson – Tropicalweather.net

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Tropical weather forecast for the week of August 24-28

Posted by Hurricane Expert on August 24, 2009

Tropical Disturbance

Tropical Disturbance

There will be a couple of tropical weather features to watch during this week for vacationers to the Caribbean, Bermuda or Southeast U.S. coast….

#1 The first system is from a combo of an upper air low followed by a tropical wave. A large area of unsettled weather is associated with the system and should move west northwest the next couple of days. Forecast models are in “low confindence” mode. Some take the tropical disturbance and move it toward the Southeast U.S. coast then north northeastward near or offshore of the coast. Other models have it recurving much sooner and take it near or west of Bermuda. Some development with the tropical disturbance is predicted by all of the models, but is too early to tell how much.

#2 Following system #1 will be a tropical wave coming from the coast of Africa. Models are also sharply divided on where this one is going. Some forecasts take it to the Leewards by late this weekend. Others recurve it much sooner.

I will be starting updates on my hurricane forecast message boards. I invite you to stop by to follow the forecasts!

Rich Johnson – Tropicalweather.net

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Hurricane Bill passing east of Cape Cod this weekend

Posted by Hurricane Expert on August 22, 2009

California coast

California coast

Hurricane Bill will be east of Cape Cod late Saturday night and early Sunday morning with a band of rain and maybe some winds gusting to just above tropical storm force…..40-45 mph. Hurricane Bill will recurve near or just south of the Nova Scotia coast Sunday and then head for Newfoundland by Sunday evening. The track then takes Bill east of newfoundland by early Monday morning into the north Atlantic where it will transform into a north Atlantic Gale. The British Isles may deal with Bill in a few days.

As for beachgoers this weekend be careful for rip currents. Swell generated by Bill will still be affecting the eastern U.S. / eastern Canadian coast, Bermuda and the Bahamas.

Visit my tropical weather weather website for more on Hurricane Bill and other tropcial weather. Happy vacationing and stay safe!

Rich Johnson
Tropicalweather.net

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Posted by Hurricane Expert on August 15, 2009

St. Kitt's sunset

St. Kitt's sunset

It’s about to start…Tropical storm Ana was officially named this morning and Bill will be coming later today. There’s even a possibility that something near Africa is behind Bill. Travelers heading to the beach or taking a cruise to Bermuda, the eastern U.S. coast or the Caribbean should watch the tropical weather carefully these next few weeks.

Forecast models have been all over the place with direction and strength with Ana and (Bill) so far. Let’s hope they cut through a weakness in the mid-Atlantic high pressure system and recurve without doing any damage.

I’ll be posting updates on the tropical weather, please stop by!

Rich Johnson
Tropicalweather.net

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