Beryl now gone, Atlantic hurricane season begins…..

Beryl rainfall

Even before the official start of the Atlantic 2012 hurricane season, we have seen two tropical storms. Many years there is no activity up to this point. Tropical storms Alberto and Beryl both formed off of the Southeastern U.S. coast before eventually moving northeast into the Atlantic.

Is this a sign of a very busy season? Probably not, but the extended tropical prognositcations have been wrong before. Season forecasts suggest a “normal” amount of tropical cyclones in the Atlantic basin compared with what has been observed over the past few decades.

I will be doing something a little different this year. I have a iphone / ipad app called The Global Travel Forecast. I produce 3 day video forecasts for different regions around the globe. One of the regions is the Caribbean where I cover tropical weather. You can also get that same forecast on my tropicalweather.net site. Please tell your friends to stop by. Thanks!

Rich Johnson – Tropicalweather.net

2012 Atlantic hurricane season outlook

Dr. Bill Gray and Dr. Phip Klotzbock of Colorado State University have given a hint to their Atlantic hurricane season outlook. It appears that the eastern equatorial Pacific is warming signaling the start of an El Nino event. This is indicative of lesser than normal tropical cyclones in the Atlantic basin. Cooler waters in the Atlantic also suggest a lower than normal tropical cyclone season.

This forecast is based on the new “normal” tropical cyclone frequency since 1995 where there has been a marked upswing in the numbers of tropical cyclones in the Atlantic basin. This hurricane season is predicted to be close to the old “normal” of ten tropical storms of which six become hurricanes and one or two of those major hurricanes. A complete seasonal outlook will be realeased on April 4.

Rich Johnson – Tropicalweather.net

2010 Atlantic hurricane season summary

Hurricane Season 2010 summary

The 2010 Atlantic hurricane season turned out to be another busy one, keeping with the trend of more than the last 15 years. Four tropical cyclones gave the U.S. some effects. The most notable was from tropical storm Hermine which brought 5-10+ inches of rain to south and central Texas. There were no direct hits from hurricanes this season in the U.S.. Earl brushed the eastern coast with only a couple of gusts to near hurricane force on Cape Hatteras. Alex hit northeastern Mexico as a category two hurricane, but was a small tropical cyclone. Because of this, the wind damage remained in Mexico. South Texas did see some winds to tropical storm force, but most of the impacts were from locally heavy rainfall in extreme south Texas. Tropical storm Bonnie made landfall in south Florida early in the season with minimal effects. Overall, despite being a busy season, the U.S. fared well. Most of the tropical cyclones traveled the familiar route around the Bermuda high in the open Atlantic ocean.
Keep an eye on the tropics on my Tropicalweather.net weather message board.

Rich Johnson – Tropicalweather.net
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Caribbean weather during the winter

Lazy Shelties

With winter hurricanes and tropical storms becoming an extreme rarity in the Caribbean, what kind of weather can you expect? Usually winter and early spring is the driest time of year in the Caribbean. Rainfall drops from possibly 8-10 inches in the rainy season each month to about an inch or two. Cold fronts can venture well into the Caribbean and bring cooler weather with showers and storms.

Needless to say, with almost no chance of a hurricane and drier weather, the Caribbean is an excellent tourist destination. Why lay around the house like a couple of lazy dogs? Take a trip to the Caribbean.

Rich Johnson – Tropicalweather.net

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Ida almost a hurricane

Ida in the northwest Caribbean

Ida, now in the northwestern Caribbean Sea is about to reach hurricane strength again. It officially was briefly a minimal hurricane before making landfall in eastern Nicagarua. Will Ida threaten the U.S. ? Check my Atlantic hurricane update for the latest on the tropics.

Rich Johnson – Tropicalweather.net

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Ida likely to make a comeback…travelers beware.

Ida over Nicaragua

Ida developed in the southwestern Caribbean Sea in the monsoon trough. It quickly developed and moved into Nicaragua where it has been bringing heavy rain to the area. Officially classified as a minimal hurricane just before landfall, Ida has now weakened to a tropical depression over land.

As Ida heads back over the warm waters of the northwestern Caribbean Sea it will likely strengthen again. Interests in the northwest Caribbean should follow the progress of Ida….which could be for another week. Check my Atlantic hurricane updates for the latest.

Rich Johnson – Tropicalweather.net

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Tropical weather forecast for the week of August 24-28

Tropical Disturbance

There will be a couple of tropical weather features to watch during this week for vacationers to the Caribbean, Bermuda or Southeast U.S. coast….

#1 The first system is from a combo of an upper air low followed by a tropical wave. A large area of unsettled weather is associated with the system and should move west northwest the next couple of days. Forecast models are in “low confindence” mode. Some take the tropical disturbance and move it toward the Southeast U.S. coast then north northeastward near or offshore of the coast. Other models have it recurving much sooner and take it near or west of Bermuda. Some development with the tropical disturbance is predicted by all of the models, but is too early to tell how much.

#2 Following system #1 will be a tropical wave coming from the coast of Africa. Models are also sharply divided on where this one is going. Some forecasts take it to the Leewards by late this weekend. Others recurve it much sooner.

I will be starting updates on my hurricane forecast message boards. I invite you to stop by to follow the forecasts!

Rich Johnson – Tropicalweather.net

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Good tropical weather travel news

california palms

Tropical storm Ana is very weak and probably not even a storm any longer. The hurricane center has a recon to investigate today. Tropical storm Bill in the Atlantic is likely to become a sizeable hurricane. The good news is that Bill is likely to recurve northeast of the Leeward Islands by midweek then recurve well offshore. Many prayers have been answered! We’ll keep an eye on the forecast for our friends in Bermuda, Bill still may be close, but that’s still a long ways out.

Rich Johnson
Tropicalweather.net

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St. Kitt's sunset

It’s about to start…Tropical storm Ana was officially named this morning and Bill will be coming later today. There’s even a possibility that something near Africa is behind Bill. Travelers heading to the beach or taking a cruise to Bermuda, the eastern U.S. coast or the Caribbean should watch the tropical weather carefully these next few weeks.

Forecast models have been all over the place with direction and strength with Ana and (Bill) so far. Let’s hope they cut through a weakness in the mid-Atlantic high pressure system and recurve without doing any damage.

I’ll be posting updates on the tropical weather, please stop by!

Rich Johnson
Tropicalweather.net

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Tropical weather for the first weekend of August

Long Beach, CA vista

Tropical travelers to Hawaii and Mexico may have tropical weather nearby this weekend.

Hawaii Satellite imagery shows more organization to a cluster of storms southeast of the Big Island. There appears to be a fair chance of development with this feature over the next couple of days. Harsh upper air winds are farther west in its path beyond that. Check my Pacific daily hurricane summary and outlook for the latest on this feature.

Mexico Forecast models want to develop a cluster which is just west of Central America this morning. It should remain well southwest of interests on the Mexican Riveria though.

Caribbean / Bermuda A tropical wave is moving through the eastern Caribbean and should increase chances of scattered showers and storms in the western Caribbean. Friday brings the best chance of scattered showers to near Jamaica and Saturday into early Sunday to Cancun and Cozumel to the Bay Islands.

Rich Johnson
Tropicalweather.net
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