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Posts Tagged ‘mexico weather’

Simon, another major hurricane in the eastern Pacific

Posted by Hurricane Expert on October 5, 2014

Hurricane Simon became the sixth category four hurricane in the eastern Pacific this season. While the Atlantic has been quiet again this year the eastern Pacific has been very busy. Thankfully Simon has tracked in the more common area that tropical cyclones follow – west of Cabo San Lucas.

Hurricane Simon on October 4th

Hurricane Simon

The resort area of Cabo San Lucas is still recovering from Hurricane Odile from a few weeks ago. Odile came onshore as a category three hurricane. This time around the Baja of Mexico has only had to deal with rain bands and higher than normal surf on their west facing beaches. Hurricane season does not end until November 30th.

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2012 Atlantic hurricane season outlook

Posted by Hurricane Expert on March 27, 2012

2012 Atlantic hurricane season outlook

Dr. Bill Gray and Dr. Phip Klotzbock of Colorado State University have given a hint to their Atlantic hurricane season outlook. It appears that the eastern equatorial Pacific is warming signaling the start of an El Nino event. This is indicative of lesser than normal tropical cyclones in the Atlantic basin. Cooler waters in the Atlantic also suggest a lower than normal tropical cyclone season.

This forecast is based on the new “normal” tropical cyclone frequency since 1995 where there has been a marked upswing in the numbers of tropical cyclones in the Atlantic basin. This hurricane season is predicted to be close to the old “normal” of ten tropical storms of which six become hurricanes and one or two of those major hurricanes. A complete seasonal outlook will be realeased on April 4.

Rich Johnson – Tropicalweather.net

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Recap of the 2011 Atlantic Hurricane Season

Posted by Hurricane Expert on February 6, 2012

2011 Atlantic hurricane season recap


Before we start thinking about the upcoming hurricane season, let’s take a look back….

The 2011 Atlantic hurricane season produced 19 tropical storms of which seven became hurricanes. Of those seven hurricanes four became major hurricanes. As a reminder, a major hurricane is signified as a category three or higher on the Saffir-Simpson wind scale. ( winds of 111 mph or stronger ).

The United States was fortunate again, making this the six year in a row that there was not a landfalling major hurricane. The last was hurricane Wilma in 2005 when it hit southwest Florida in late October.

The hurricane season took an unusual start. There were eight tropical storms before a hurricane formed. That was Hurricane Irene which affected the Mid-Atlantic and Northeastern U.S. Two tropical storms did hit the U.S. in 2011. Don moved into south Texas in late July and Lee hit the central Louisiana coast in early September.

It was interesting to note that Bermuda was surrounded by several tropical cyclones but none made a direct hit. Powerful Ophelia steered well to the east sparing the island.

We’ll take a look at the upcoming 2012 hurricane season at a later date.

Rich Johnson – Tropicalweather.net

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The 2011 Atlantic Hurricane Season as of Late September

Posted by Hurricane Expert on September 22, 2011

The Tropics

The Atlantic tropical hurricane season has been very interesting this year. In line with about the past fifteen years, hurricane activity in the Atlantic basin has been up. So far we have had fifteen named storms, with still a few months of the hurricane season left to squeeze out more. What is so unusual is that only three have become hurricanes. Very roughly, about 50% or more of the named storms become hurricanes. As of now, only three of the fifteen have become hurricanes and one of those is marginal if it even was a hurricane.

I don’t think that anyone is complaining except possibly the storm chasers who want to see mayhem. Right now were batting at about a 20% rate of tropical storms becoming hurricanes (13% if only two). Windshear – strong winds aloft are tearing the storms apart and not allowing them to strengthen. Hopefully it stays like this the rest of the season!

Be sure to check out my forecasts on the message boards at Tropicalweather.net

Rich Johnson – Tropicalweather.net

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First official tropical system may try to form over next serval days in Gulf

Posted by Hurricane Expert on June 23, 2011

Tropical forecast models have been insisting that a tropical cyclone will form in the northwestern Caribbean or western Gulf over the next several days. The models generally take the system toward the Texas coast or northwestern Mexican east coast. Remember forecast models can be fickle. We are watching them closely but are not too concerned at this time. Interests on the Texas coast over the next week should keep an eye on this system.

Rich Johnson – Tropicalweather.net
Weather / Hurricane Message boards
Facts about Lightning
Facts about hurricanes
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Hurricane Adrian starts the eastern Pacific hurricane season strong

Posted by Hurricane Expert on June 11, 2011

This slideshow requires JavaScript.

Hurricane Adrian started the eastern Pacific hurricane season with a bang. It strengthened into a category 4 hurricane west of Mexico to 140 mph late Thursday into early Friday. It ran the “typical” route for a hurricane in the eastern Pacific basin where it formed in the monsoon trough south of Mexico and moved on a west northwesterly course. It encounted colder water which robbed its energy source and weakened rapidly. The slideshow shows different satellite perspectives of Adrian: Visible, I.R. and Rainbow enhancement.

Rich Johnson – Tropicalweather.net
Weather / Hurricane Message boards
Facts about Lightning
Facts about hurricanes
Facts about Thunderstorms
Facts about Tornadoes

Sunrise / Sunset times
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Atlantic hurricane season 2011 begins Wednesday

Posted by Hurricane Expert on May 31, 2011

hurricane season 2011

The 2011 Atlantic hurricane season is here and is predicted to be an active one similar to last year. Contrary to some reports, this is not due to warmer than normal water in the Atlantic nor is a result from climate change. A large area of warmer than normal water may have some part in a more active hurricane season, but is not the overriding factor. Global weather weather patterns influenced by El Nino and La Nina as well as major a ocean circulation in the Atlantic are much larger features.

The number of tropical cyclones in the Atlantic basin are also cyclical. We have been in an “up” cycle since the mid 1990’s and will likely be in this cycle for another 10-15 years.

Regardless, of the amount of hurricanes expected, you should be finishing preseason hurricane preparedness. Here are some helpful tips on how to do just that: – Preseason hurricane preparedness

Don’t get caught without properly preparing for this hurricane season. Now is the time to prepare, not two days before a hurricane strikes!

Rich Johnson – Tropicalweather.net
Weather / Hurricane Message boards
Facts about Lightning
Facts about hurricanes
Facts about Thunderstorms
Facts about Tornadoes

Sunrise / Sunset times
Beach water temps
Caribbean weather averages
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2011 hurricane season prediction

Posted by Hurricane Expert on May 9, 2011

Windwards / Leewards

My colleagues Dr. Phil Klotzback and Dr. Bill Gray announced at the hurricane conference in Atlanta that they are predicting 16 tropical storms of which 9 will become hurricanes and 5 will become major hurricanes. The long term average for hurrianes in the Atlantic basin are 10 tropical storms of which 6 become hurricanes and 3 major hurricanes.

A major hurricane is one considered a category 3,4 or 5 on ths Saffir – Simpson hurriane wind scale. Winds must be at least 111 mph sustained to be classified as a category 3. Remember, simply because we are expecting more hurricanes does not mean more landfalls. It does increase the risk though. Stay vigilant – stay prepared.

Rich Johnson – Tropicalweather.net
Weather / Hurricane Message boards
Facts about Lightning
Facts about Thunderstorms
Facts about Tornadoes

Sunrise / Sunset times
Beach water temps
Caribbean weather averages
weather channel

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Atlantic Hurricane season starts June 1

Posted by Hurricane Expert on May 27, 2010

Greg Long, Jamie Sterling

Greg Long, Jamie Sterling Surfing

The Atlantic hurricane season begins June 1.

NOAA predicts as many as 23 named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season, with three to seven becoming serious enough to be classified as major hurricanes. The agency worries that as many as 14 could turn into hurricanes.

On average, 10 storms are named of which 6 become hurricanes,, of those 2-3 become major hurricanes which is a category 3,4 or 5. Since 1997, the averages have increased to about 15 named storms of which 8 become hurricanes and of those 4 major hurricanes.

The reasoning behind the forecast is due to the fact that El Nino has weakened and a La Nina may be forming. There is a slight correlation between a La Nina event and upswing in activity.

Check my website on the latest hurricane forecasts. We simply do not copy the National Hurricane Center’s forecasts. We make our own forecasts and add expert opinion to the Hurricane Center’s forecast also. Check Tropicalweather.net’s forecasts before traveling to the tropics during hurricane season!

Rich Johnson – Tropicalweather.net

More about Rich Johnson…
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Tropical Weather / Hurricane Forecasts / Travel
Sunrise / Sunset times
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Eastern Pacific Hurricane Season Starts Saturday

Posted by Hurricane Expert on May 12, 2010

caribbean beach

Caribbean Beach

That’s right, hurricane season is almost here….for the eastern Pacific. Saturday, May 15 is the start of the hurricane season for places like, Acalpulco, Cabo San Lucas and many other Mexican Resorts on the west coast. Check my hurricane updates on the central and eastern Pacific hurricane season. And just a reminder, the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season starts in two weeks. Make sure you start your preseason preparations now!

Rich Johnson – Tropicalweather.net

More about Rich Johnson…
Weather / Hurricane Message boards
Tropical Weather / Hurricane Forecasts / Travel
Sunrise / Sunset times
Beach water temps
weather channel

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