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Posts Tagged ‘mexico travel’

Ida almost a hurricane

Posted by Hurricane Expert on November 7, 2009

Ida in the northwest Caribbean

Ida in the northwest Caribbean

Ida, now in the northwestern Caribbean Sea is about to reach hurricane strength again. It officially was briefly a minimal hurricane before making landfall in eastern Nicagarua. Will Ida threaten the U.S. ? Check my Atlantic hurricane update for the latest on the tropics.

Rich Johnson – Tropicalweather.net

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Ida likely to make a comeback…travelers beware.

Posted by Hurricane Expert on November 5, 2009

ida over Nicaragua

Ida over Nicaragua

Ida developed in the southwestern Caribbean Sea in the monsoon trough. It quickly developed and moved into Nicaragua where it has been bringing heavy rain to the area. Officially classified as a minimal hurricane just before landfall, Ida has now weakened to a tropical depression over land.

As Ida heads back over the warm waters of the northwestern Caribbean Sea it will likely strengthen again. Interests in the northwest Caribbean should follow the progress of Ida….which could be for another week. Check my Atlantic hurricane updates for the latest.

Rich Johnson – Tropicalweather.net

More about Me…
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Tropical weather picks up for mid October

Posted by Hurricane Expert on October 18, 2009

Hurricane Rick

Hurricane Rick

Eastern Pacific Hurricane Rick at this time is in the eastern Pacific, just far enough off of the coast to not cause any major problems. Top sustained winds are estimated at 180 mph. That makes it the second strongest hurricane on record in the eastern Pacific. Down the road a few days Los Cabos will need to deal with Rick, very possibly still a hurricane. Residents and visitors to Cabo San Lucas and the southern Baja in general should watch Rick closely. Rick is forecast to be in the area by Wednesday. For more on the Hurricane Rick check my Pacific hurricane update.

Caribbean A growing area of unsettled weather is in the western Caribbean Sea this Sunday morning. Some forecast models try to develop this tropical weather feature into the middle of next week. Check my Atlantic tropical weather update for the lastest on this system.

Rich Johnson – Tropicalweather.net

More about Me…
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Hurricane Jimena takes aim at the southern Baja

Posted by Hurricane Expert on September 1, 2009

Hurricane Jimena south of Baja

Hurricane Jimena south of Baja

The great majority of eastern north Pacific hurricanes curn their way harmlessly out to sea. Only fringe effects of rough surf or heavy rain bands venture onshore. Hurricane Jimena will be different. It was a strong category four on the Saffir-Simpson Scale, capable of doing extensive damage especially to substandard buildings.

Jimena is expected to make landfall Tuesday night or early Wednesday morning. It still may be a major hurricane before making landfall. Check my Pacific update for the latest on Jimena.

Rich Johnson – Tropicalweather.net

More about Me…
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Tropical weather forecast for the week of August 24-28

Posted by Hurricane Expert on August 24, 2009

Tropical Disturbance

Tropical Disturbance

There will be a couple of tropical weather features to watch during this week for vacationers to the Caribbean, Bermuda or Southeast U.S. coast….

#1 The first system is from a combo of an upper air low followed by a tropical wave. A large area of unsettled weather is associated with the system and should move west northwest the next couple of days. Forecast models are in “low confindence” mode. Some take the tropical disturbance and move it toward the Southeast U.S. coast then north northeastward near or offshore of the coast. Other models have it recurving much sooner and take it near or west of Bermuda. Some development with the tropical disturbance is predicted by all of the models, but is too early to tell how much.

#2 Following system #1 will be a tropical wave coming from the coast of Africa. Models are also sharply divided on where this one is going. Some forecasts take it to the Leewards by late this weekend. Others recurve it much sooner.

I will be starting updates on my hurricane forecast message boards. I invite you to stop by to follow the forecasts!

Rich Johnson – Tropicalweather.net

More about Me…
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Good tropical weather travel news

Posted by Hurricane Expert on August 16, 2009

california palms

california palms

Tropical storm Ana is very weak and probably not even a storm any longer. The hurricane center has a recon to investigate today. Tropical storm Bill in the Atlantic is likely to become a sizeable hurricane. The good news is that Bill is likely to recurve northeast of the Leeward Islands by midweek then recurve well offshore. Many prayers have been answered! We’ll keep an eye on the forecast for our friends in Bermuda, Bill still may be close, but that’s still a long ways out.

Rich Johnson
Tropicalweather.net

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Posted by Hurricane Expert on August 15, 2009

St. Kitt's sunset

St. Kitt's sunset

It’s about to start…Tropical storm Ana was officially named this morning and Bill will be coming later today. There’s even a possibility that something near Africa is behind Bill. Travelers heading to the beach or taking a cruise to Bermuda, the eastern U.S. coast or the Caribbean should watch the tropical weather carefully these next few weeks.

Forecast models have been all over the place with direction and strength with Ana and (Bill) so far. Let’s hope they cut through a weakness in the mid-Atlantic high pressure system and recurve without doing any damage.

I’ll be posting updates on the tropical weather, please stop by!

Rich Johnson
Tropicalweather.net

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Tropical weather turning active in the eastern Atlantic

Posted by Hurricane Expert on August 12, 2009

St. Kitts

St. Kitts

Travelers are getting a little nervous on impending reports of doom. Tropical weather forecast models have been indicating that a new strong tropical wave now just south of the Cape Verde Islands will form into something big and bad.

The early forecasts take it across the northern Antillies by early to middle of next week. All sorts of weather enthusiasts are trumpeting “excitment” over the news of a possible big ‘cane. This is very morbid. The last thing that the U.S. or Caribbean economies need is a hit from a strong hurricane.

For now the voice of reason needs to prevail. Yes, it is a possible scenario that a hurricane will form and move toward the Caribbean or Southeast U.S. But it is also possible that it will recurve east of the coast or weaken considerably before affecting land areas. The models are always wrong. It just depends how much. We’ll keep watching the forecast model trends and know much more on the track accuracy in the next few days…So, sit tight and be prepared.

Rich Johnson
Tropicalweather.net
Hurricane Forecasts
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Atlantic tropical disturbances moving off of African coast

Posted by Hurricane Expert on August 10, 2009

Long Beach, CA

Long Beach, CA

Hello tropical travelers!

This is the time of year that we have a lot of interest in the forecast for the Caribbean and other tropical locations. We will be heading into the heart of hurricane season soon which roughly runs from mid-August through early October.

As of early Monday we have two noteworthy tropical disturbances. One is already near the Cape Verde Islands and the other is on the coast of Africa. We are most concerned about the second one which is farther south. That can mean a farther west track, and that is exactly what the early models do with it.

No sense of going into the forecasts yet. There are actually some scary scenarios that they are painting. We DON’T trust the models in that 10 day + territory though. They rarely get the details right that far away. They can get an idea on what’s happening though so we’re keeping a close eye on the situation.

I’ll continue to update the forecasts, just check back if you can. I will also try to answer any questions that you may have! Thanks and happy vacationing!

Rich Johnson
Tropicalweather.net
Hurricane Forecasts
Hurricane tracking chart
Hurricane Preparedness

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Is the first Atlantic storm of 2009 ready to form?

Posted by Hurricane Expert on August 1, 2009

Water Fowl

Water Fowl

Forecast models hint at a strong tropical wave moving off of the African coast and developing by early to mid week ( first week of august ). In the long range – out one week or more – the models take a low across the tropics and recurve it northeast of the Leewards by the end of next weekend. This is not meant to be a fear mongering post. I get asked about long range tropical forecasts all of the time. Sometimes for a month or two in advance. In those cases you can only go with climatology. Forecasts of one week and more have some skill. With this being the case, it’s worth watching. If the long range model is right, this will be a “fish storm” – one that only affects water locations. I don’t have a lot of trust in long range forecasts though, especially for a specific location. No, don’t cancel your trip to the Caribbean….keep an eye on the forecast though. I’ll be updating my forecasts on my website.

Rich Johnson – Tropicalweather.net
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