St. Kitt's sunset

It’s about to start…Tropical storm Ana was officially named this morning and Bill will be coming later today. There’s even a possibility that something near Africa is behind Bill. Travelers heading to the beach or taking a cruise to Bermuda, the eastern U.S. coast or the Caribbean should watch the tropical weather carefully these next few weeks.

Forecast models have been all over the place with direction and strength with Ana and (Bill) so far. Let’s hope they cut through a weakness in the mid-Atlantic high pressure system and recurve without doing any damage.

I’ll be posting updates on the tropical weather, please stop by!

Rich Johnson
Tropicalweather.net

Hurricane Forecasts
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Tropical weather turning active in the eastern Atlantic

St. Kitts

Travelers are getting a little nervous on impending reports of doom. Tropical weather forecast models have been indicating that a new strong tropical wave now just south of the Cape Verde Islands will form into something big and bad.

The early forecasts take it across the northern Antillies by early to middle of next week. All sorts of weather enthusiasts are trumpeting “excitment” over the news of a possible big ‘cane. This is very morbid. The last thing that the U.S. or Caribbean economies need is a hit from a strong hurricane.

For now the voice of reason needs to prevail. Yes, it is a possible scenario that a hurricane will form and move toward the Caribbean or Southeast U.S. But it is also possible that it will recurve east of the coast or weaken considerably before affecting land areas. The models are always wrong. It just depends how much. We’ll keep watching the forecast model trends and know much more on the track accuracy in the next few days…So, sit tight and be prepared.

Rich Johnson
Tropicalweather.net
Hurricane Forecasts
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Hurricane Preparedness

Atlantic tropical disturbances moving off of African coast

Long Beach, CA

Hello tropical travelers!

This is the time of year that we have a lot of interest in the forecast for the Caribbean and other tropical locations. We will be heading into the heart of hurricane season soon which roughly runs from mid-August through early October.

As of early Monday we have two noteworthy tropical disturbances. One is already near the Cape Verde Islands and the other is on the coast of Africa. We are most concerned about the second one which is farther south. That can mean a farther west track, and that is exactly what the early models do with it.

No sense of going into the forecasts yet. There are actually some scary scenarios that they are painting. We DON’T trust the models in that 10 day + territory though. They rarely get the details right that far away. They can get an idea on what’s happening though so we’re keeping a close eye on the situation.

I’ll continue to update the forecasts, just check back if you can. I will also try to answer any questions that you may have! Thanks and happy vacationing!

Rich Johnson
Tropicalweather.net
Hurricane Forecasts
Hurricane tracking chart
Hurricane Preparedness

Is the first Atlantic storm of 2009 ready to form?

Water Fowl

Forecast models hint at a strong tropical wave moving off of the African coast and developing by early to mid week ( first week of august ). In the long range – out one week or more – the models take a low across the tropics and recurve it northeast of the Leewards by the end of next weekend. This is not meant to be a fear mongering post. I get asked about long range tropical forecasts all of the time. Sometimes for a month or two in advance. In those cases you can only go with climatology. Forecasts of one week and more have some skill. With this being the case, it’s worth watching. If the long range model is right, this will be a “fish storm” – one that only affects water locations. I don’t have a lot of trust in long range forecasts though, especially for a specific location. No, don’t cancel your trip to the Caribbean….keep an eye on the forecast though. I’ll be updating my forecasts on my website.

Rich Johnson – Tropicalweather.net
Hurricane forecasts – Atlantic and Pacific
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Tropical weather for the first weekend of August

Long Beach, CA vista

Tropical travelers to Hawaii and Mexico may have tropical weather nearby this weekend.

Hawaii Satellite imagery shows more organization to a cluster of storms southeast of the Big Island. There appears to be a fair chance of development with this feature over the next couple of days. Harsh upper air winds are farther west in its path beyond that. Check my Pacific daily hurricane summary and outlook for the latest on this feature.

Mexico Forecast models want to develop a cluster which is just west of Central America this morning. It should remain well southwest of interests on the Mexican Riveria though.

Caribbean / Bermuda A tropical wave is moving through the eastern Caribbean and should increase chances of scattered showers and storms in the western Caribbean. Friday brings the best chance of scattered showers to near Jamaica and Saturday into early Sunday to Cancun and Cozumel to the Bay Islands.

Rich Johnson
Tropicalweather.net
Sunrise / Sunset times
Beach water temps

The tropics staying quiet…

La Jolla sea lions

Good day to all of the travelers to the tropics of the Atlantic and eastern Pacific waters.

Here we are heading into the weekend of July 25-26. No hurricanes or tropical storms in sight! Why has it been so slow this season? Well, it really hasn’t. We could have had a couple of systems briefly named earlier but the National Hurricane Center opted out. We are really on target for an old fashioned “regular” hurricane season. Before the mid 1990’s there were on average about 10 named storms of which 6 became hurricanes. We have just been in an up cycle since then and we have all grown accustomed to much more active hurricane seasons.

Glancing a little farther down the road it looks like this upcoming week should be relatively quiet. The forecast models try to develop a system well west of Mexico in a few days…..aka “fish storm”. If you’re really bold to believe the models, they have a couple of strong waves coming off of Africa in about 7-10 days. That’s simply climatology. The active part of the Atlantic hurricane season starts in Mid August. I had to laugh a few weeks ago when a very well known weather provider’s hurricane expert boldy stated that the hurricane season was looking to heat up in mid August. A trained chimp could have got that one right….if it knew basic tropical weather climatology!

Have fun and enjoy those vacations this week!

Rich Johnson
Hurricane forecasts and Travel Information

Tropical disturbance in the deep tropics

Pacific Surf

Travelers to the Caribbean and Bermuda will want to keep one eye on the weather by late this weekend and into next week.

A tropical disturbance is well east of the Lesser Antillies and meandering westward. The forecast models have been somewhat developing a low for several days now. It looks like they were right as we can now see more evidence on the satellite imagery. It’s definitely worth watching but not getting nervous about at this point….one mention about something in the Atlantic and the price of gas goes up!

Rich Johnson
http://www.tropicalweather.net
Atlantic Hurricane Weather Updates

Caribbean still looking great for travelers

Whale Tail

Hello travel fans!
It appears that the Caribbean is still looking great for this week. There are a few showers near Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands as well as a few storms east of Belize this Monday morning. Nothing unusual, a passing shower here and there with lots of sun.

The forecast models have a low a little east of the Lesser Antillies Saturday. This is probably associated with a flare up of storms with a tropical wave off of the African west coast today. Enjoy this week!

Rich Johnson
http://www.tropicalweather.net

Atlantic and East Pacific Hurricane Forecasts

Caribbean / Gulf of Mexico / Eastern U.S. coast / Hawaii / Bermuda / Western Mexico weekend weather forecast

St. Kitts scenery

Hello travel fans…

if you’re headed to the tropics this weekend we are not expecting any hurricanes to threaten your trip. There is one cluster of storms several hundred miles southwest of the west coast of Mexico, that may have some slow development potential. This would be classified as a “fish storm”. Only bothering the fish in the open ocean waters…I doubt that any of would be heading anywhere near there. Oh, and there’s the leftovers from Blanca several hundered miles west of the Baja holding onto a few showers.

As for Hawaii, hurricanes are extremely rare and this weekend will not see one either.

The Caribbean will see the usual sunshine with a scattered shower. Three will be a tropical wave crossing the area which will increase the rain chances for a day as it moves past. Near Jamaica on Saturday and then the western Caribbean on Sunday.

The Gulf of Mexico will be mostly sunny with scattered showers. The best chance of storms will be over the Florida coasts where it is more unstable, away from the big bad high over Texas and Oklahoma.

On the east coast to Bermuda…a pesky front will still bring a few showers and storms to the eastern Florida coast. A low pressure center or two will develop east of the Carolina’s and head just north of Bermuda this weekend. Just like the past several days, it may be a close call for some storms in Bermuda….hopefully they’ll stay just to the north. The next front will bring a chance of showers to the Northeast Saturday night and then Sunday for the Southeast coast, especially North Carolina.

Enjoy the weekend!

Check out the website for up to date forecasts / webcams / beach water temperatures and all kinds of stuff!

Rich Johnson
http://www.tropicalweather.net

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Disney World

African dust cloud moving toward the Caribbean

African dust cloud

When travelers head to the tropics they want to know if a hurricane or tropical storm is possible…right? Well, how about dust? Every so often easterly winds pick up a bunch of the sand and dirt over the Sahara desert and send it aloft as dust particles. It has been traveling over the tropical Atlantic Ocean for a few days and is about to arrive in the eastern Caribbean.

For the vacationers in the Caribbean you’ll notice that the beautiful blue skies may be more whiteish as haze from the dust particles move through. Right now a strong tropical wave is pushing into the eastern Caribbean Sea. The haze moves in shortly thereafter.

Enjoy the 4th of July holiday. God bless America!

Rich Johnson
tropicalweather.net
Beach water temperatures
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