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Posts Tagged ‘jamaica travel’

Beryl now gone, Atlantic hurricane season begins…..

Posted by Hurricane Expert on May 31, 2012

Beryl rainfall

Even before the official start of the Atlantic 2012 hurricane season, we have seen two tropical storms. Many years there is no activity up to this point. Tropical storms Alberto and Beryl both formed off of the Southeastern U.S. coast before eventually moving northeast into the Atlantic.

Is this a sign of a very busy season? Probably not, but the extended tropical prognositcations have been wrong before. Season forecasts suggest a “normal” amount of tropical cyclones in the Atlantic basin compared with what has been observed over the past few decades.

I will be doing something a little different this year. I have a iphone / ipad app called The Global Travel Forecast. I produce 3 day video forecasts for different regions around the globe. One of the regions is the Caribbean where I cover tropical weather. You can also get that same forecast on my tropicalweather.net site. Please tell your friends to stop by. Thanks!

Rich Johnson – Tropicalweather.net

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2012 Atlantic hurricane season outlook

Posted by Hurricane Expert on March 27, 2012

2012 Atlantic hurricane season outlook

Dr. Bill Gray and Dr. Phip Klotzbock of Colorado State University have given a hint to their Atlantic hurricane season outlook. It appears that the eastern equatorial Pacific is warming signaling the start of an El Nino event. This is indicative of lesser than normal tropical cyclones in the Atlantic basin. Cooler waters in the Atlantic also suggest a lower than normal tropical cyclone season.

This forecast is based on the new “normal” tropical cyclone frequency since 1995 where there has been a marked upswing in the numbers of tropical cyclones in the Atlantic basin. This hurricane season is predicted to be close to the old “normal” of ten tropical storms of which six become hurricanes and one or two of those major hurricanes. A complete seasonal outlook will be realeased on April 4.

Rich Johnson – Tropicalweather.net

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Atlantic Hurricane season starts June 1

Posted by Hurricane Expert on May 27, 2010

Greg Long, Jamie Sterling

Greg Long, Jamie Sterling Surfing

The Atlantic hurricane season begins June 1.

NOAA predicts as many as 23 named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season, with three to seven becoming serious enough to be classified as major hurricanes. The agency worries that as many as 14 could turn into hurricanes.

On average, 10 storms are named of which 6 become hurricanes,, of those 2-3 become major hurricanes which is a category 3,4 or 5. Since 1997, the averages have increased to about 15 named storms of which 8 become hurricanes and of those 4 major hurricanes.

The reasoning behind the forecast is due to the fact that El Nino has weakened and a La Nina may be forming. There is a slight correlation between a La Nina event and upswing in activity.

Check my website on the latest hurricane forecasts. We simply do not copy the National Hurricane Center’s forecasts. We make our own forecasts and add expert opinion to the Hurricane Center’s forecast also. Check Tropicalweather.net’s forecasts before traveling to the tropics during hurricane season!

Rich Johnson – Tropicalweather.net

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U.S. Gulf coast / Mid-Atlantic to stay stormy

Posted by Hurricane Expert on February 1, 2010

Stormy February

Stormy February

It appears that the snowy / icy / rainy weather across the southern U.S. and Mid-Atlantic will continue for at least the first half of the month of February. There will be several significant storms developing in the western Gulf of Mexico over the next few weeks. These Gulf lows will likely bring more snow and ice to parts of the Gulf coastal states as well as into the Mid-Atlantic.

As for vacationers to Florida, snow and ice is very rare and at this time we’re not looking for any wintry weather. Cooler than average weather is likely for a day or two as a series of cold fronts move across the state over the next couple of weeks. Rain with thunderstoms will be associated with the cold fronts.

If you are travelling to the Caribbean to escape the cold and the snow, January is usually very pleasant with occasional cooler spells in the northwest Caribbean if a strong cold front makes it that far south.

Rich Johnson – Tropicalweather.net

More about Rich Johnson…
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2009 Hurricane Season ending

Posted by Hurricane Expert on November 29, 2009

Florida Beach

The 2009 hurricane season officially ends November 30. This hurricane season fits the mold of the long term averages. For the 2009 season there were 10 named storms of which 3 became hurricanes and of those 2 major hurricanes. A category 3 or higher on the Saffir_Simpson scale is considered major.

In the Atlantic basin, long term averages show that there are about 10 named storms of which 6 become hurricanes and 3 of those major hurricanes. Since 1995 there has been a major upswing in tropical cyclone activity. During this period there has been an average of 15 named storms of which 8 became hurricanes and 4 of those major hurricanes.

The return of El Nino was the likely cause in the decrease in tropical cyclone activity, especially affecting the number of hurricanes that formed. The El Nino causes an increase in wind shear which creates a hostile environment for hurricane development in gerneral.

Rich Johnson – Tropicalweather.net

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Ida almost a hurricane

Posted by Hurricane Expert on November 7, 2009

Ida in the northwest Caribbean

Ida in the northwest Caribbean

Ida, now in the northwestern Caribbean Sea is about to reach hurricane strength again. It officially was briefly a minimal hurricane before making landfall in eastern Nicagarua. Will Ida threaten the U.S. ? Check my Atlantic hurricane update for the latest on the tropics.

Rich Johnson – Tropicalweather.net

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Ida likely to make a comeback…travelers beware.

Posted by Hurricane Expert on November 5, 2009

ida over Nicaragua

Ida over Nicaragua

Ida developed in the southwestern Caribbean Sea in the monsoon trough. It quickly developed and moved into Nicaragua where it has been bringing heavy rain to the area. Officially classified as a minimal hurricane just before landfall, Ida has now weakened to a tropical depression over land.

As Ida heads back over the warm waters of the northwestern Caribbean Sea it will likely strengthen again. Interests in the northwest Caribbean should follow the progress of Ida….which could be for another week. Check my Atlantic hurricane updates for the latest.

Rich Johnson – Tropicalweather.net

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Tropical weather picks up for mid October

Posted by Hurricane Expert on October 18, 2009

Hurricane Rick

Hurricane Rick

Eastern Pacific Hurricane Rick at this time is in the eastern Pacific, just far enough off of the coast to not cause any major problems. Top sustained winds are estimated at 180 mph. That makes it the second strongest hurricane on record in the eastern Pacific. Down the road a few days Los Cabos will need to deal with Rick, very possibly still a hurricane. Residents and visitors to Cabo San Lucas and the southern Baja in general should watch Rick closely. Rick is forecast to be in the area by Wednesday. For more on the Hurricane Rick check my Pacific hurricane update.

Caribbean A growing area of unsettled weather is in the western Caribbean Sea this Sunday morning. Some forecast models try to develop this tropical weather feature into the middle of next week. Check my Atlantic tropical weather update for the lastest on this system.

Rich Johnson – Tropicalweather.net

More about Me…
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Tropical weather forecast for the week of August 24-28

Posted by Hurricane Expert on August 24, 2009

Tropical Disturbance

Tropical Disturbance

There will be a couple of tropical weather features to watch during this week for vacationers to the Caribbean, Bermuda or Southeast U.S. coast….

#1 The first system is from a combo of an upper air low followed by a tropical wave. A large area of unsettled weather is associated with the system and should move west northwest the next couple of days. Forecast models are in “low confindence” mode. Some take the tropical disturbance and move it toward the Southeast U.S. coast then north northeastward near or offshore of the coast. Other models have it recurving much sooner and take it near or west of Bermuda. Some development with the tropical disturbance is predicted by all of the models, but is too early to tell how much.

#2 Following system #1 will be a tropical wave coming from the coast of Africa. Models are also sharply divided on where this one is going. Some forecasts take it to the Leewards by late this weekend. Others recurve it much sooner.

I will be starting updates on my hurricane forecast message boards. I invite you to stop by to follow the forecasts!

Rich Johnson – Tropicalweather.net

More about Me…
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Good tropical weather travel news

Posted by Hurricane Expert on August 16, 2009

california palms

california palms

Tropical storm Ana is very weak and probably not even a storm any longer. The hurricane center has a recon to investigate today. Tropical storm Bill in the Atlantic is likely to become a sizeable hurricane. The good news is that Bill is likely to recurve northeast of the Leeward Islands by midweek then recurve well offshore. Many prayers have been answered! We’ll keep an eye on the forecast for our friends in Bermuda, Bill still may be close, but that’s still a long ways out.

Rich Johnson
Tropicalweather.net

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