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Posts Tagged ‘hurricane forecast’

Posted by Hurricane Expert on August 25, 2011

Hurricane Irene over the northeastern Bahamas

Hurricane Irene is not actually a cat 3 hurricane at this point. Hurricane Hunter recon aircraft and IR satellite imagery do not support this strength. The Hurricane Center is likely keeping the wind up for the sake of continuity. Hurricane Irene is still expected to strengthen and move north toward the U.S. east coast. This will not only be a hurricane that affects the coast, but large cities from Washington D.C. to Boston. New York City as well.

Be sure to check out my forecasts on the message boards at Tropicalweather.net. Also, it you are a fan of facebook check out my tropicalweathr.net facebook page and hit “like” – thanks!

Rich Johnson – Tropicalweather.net

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Irene to head up U.S. east coast this week

Posted by Hurricane Expert on August 24, 2011

Irene in the Bahamas

Irene is strengthening rapidly today as it moves into the central Bahamas. It is likely to affect the eastern U.S. coast especially from North Carolina to New England. I will be busy updating my forecasts. Be sure to check out my forecasts on the message boards at Tropicalweather.net. Also, it you are a fan of facebook check out my tropicalweathr.net facebook page and hit “like” – thanks!

Rich Johnson – Tropicalweather.net

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Irene heading into the northern Caribbean

Posted by Hurricane Expert on August 21, 2011

Irene near the Leewards

Tropical storm Irene will be disturbing travelers and residents of the northern Caribbean, Bahamas, Turks and Caicos and U.S. eastern seaboard over the next seven days. The track of Irene will be extremely important. As of this time, it appears that the track of Irene will take it over the northern Antilles then over or just east of Florida. The more land Irene encounters the more the circulation will get disturbed and inhibit development, especially Hispaniola (Dominican Republic and Haiti). A big concern is still the potential for flash flooding in Haiti where there is a history of large loss of life from tropical cyclones.

For interests in the U.S. the more favorable track would be directly up the Florida peninsula and into the Southeastern U.S. This would allow for beneficial rain and stop any further development. Keep in mind that there would possibly be problems with flash flooding, isolated tornadoes and wind / surge damage farther south. If Irene stays a little east of Florida, strengthening would continue increasing the damage potential from Florida into the Southeastern / Mid-Atlantic states.

It would be wise to follow the progress of Irene if you live or will be traveling in these threat areas. Remember – now is the time to prepare for the possible impacts from a hurricane, not the day before! Be safe and God bless!

Be sure to check out my forecasts on the message boards at Tropicalweather.net

Rich Johnson – Tropicalweather.net

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Emily forming east of the Lesser Antilles

Posted by Hurricane Expert on July 31, 2011

emily forming

Emily Forming east of Antilles

The next named tropical system is well on its way. It is several hundred miles east of the Lesser Antilles this morning. The forecast track takes it into the Leewards over the next 2-3 days. After that, most models predict it to recurve east of the Bahamas with a few taking it into the Bahamas by next weekend. Keep in mind that the low hasn’t quite formed yet. Because of this forecast models can have significant errors.

Speculation has already started and no doubt the media outlets will be cranking up the hype machines to draw in big ratings money. To the media – remember… hurricanes hype themselves – stay calm – you can serve the public better that way!

Be sure to check out my forecasts at Tropicalweather.net

Rich Johnson – Tropicalweather.net
Weather / Hurricane Message boards
Facts about Lightning
Facts about hurricanes
Facts about Thunderstorms
Facts about Tornadoes

Sunrise / Sunset times
Beach water temps
Caribbean weather averages
weather channel

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Hurricane Adrian starts the eastern Pacific hurricane season strong

Posted by Hurricane Expert on June 11, 2011

This slideshow requires JavaScript.

Hurricane Adrian started the eastern Pacific hurricane season with a bang. It strengthened into a category 4 hurricane west of Mexico to 140 mph late Thursday into early Friday. It ran the “typical” route for a hurricane in the eastern Pacific basin where it formed in the monsoon trough south of Mexico and moved on a west northwesterly course. It encounted colder water which robbed its energy source and weakened rapidly. The slideshow shows different satellite perspectives of Adrian: Visible, I.R. and Rainbow enhancement.

Rich Johnson – Tropicalweather.net
Weather / Hurricane Message boards
Facts about Lightning
Facts about hurricanes
Facts about Thunderstorms
Facts about Tornadoes

Sunrise / Sunset times
Beach water temps
Caribbean weather averages
weather channel

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Atlantic hurricane season 2011 begins Wednesday

Posted by Hurricane Expert on May 31, 2011

hurricane season 2011

The 2011 Atlantic hurricane season is here and is predicted to be an active one similar to last year. Contrary to some reports, this is not due to warmer than normal water in the Atlantic nor is a result from climate change. A large area of warmer than normal water may have some part in a more active hurricane season, but is not the overriding factor. Global weather weather patterns influenced by El Nino and La Nina as well as major a ocean circulation in the Atlantic are much larger features.

The number of tropical cyclones in the Atlantic basin are also cyclical. We have been in an “up” cycle since the mid 1990’s and will likely be in this cycle for another 10-15 years.

Regardless, of the amount of hurricanes expected, you should be finishing preseason hurricane preparedness. Here are some helpful tips on how to do just that: – Preseason hurricane preparedness

Don’t get caught without properly preparing for this hurricane season. Now is the time to prepare, not two days before a hurricane strikes!

Rich Johnson – Tropicalweather.net
Weather / Hurricane Message boards
Facts about Lightning
Facts about hurricanes
Facts about Thunderstorms
Facts about Tornadoes

Sunrise / Sunset times
Beach water temps
Caribbean weather averages
weather channel

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2011 hurricane season prediction

Posted by Hurricane Expert on May 9, 2011

Windwards / Leewards

My colleagues Dr. Phil Klotzback and Dr. Bill Gray announced at the hurricane conference in Atlanta that they are predicting 16 tropical storms of which 9 will become hurricanes and 5 will become major hurricanes. The long term average for hurrianes in the Atlantic basin are 10 tropical storms of which 6 become hurricanes and 3 major hurricanes.

A major hurricane is one considered a category 3,4 or 5 on ths Saffir – Simpson hurriane wind scale. Winds must be at least 111 mph sustained to be classified as a category 3. Remember, simply because we are expecting more hurricanes does not mean more landfalls. It does increase the risk though. Stay vigilant – stay prepared.

Rich Johnson – Tropicalweather.net
Weather / Hurricane Message boards
Facts about Lightning
Facts about Thunderstorms
Facts about Tornadoes

Sunrise / Sunset times
Beach water temps
Caribbean weather averages
weather channel

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Peak of hurricane season

Posted by Hurricane Expert on September 15, 2010

Igor, Julia, Karl

Igor / Julia / Karl

September 10th is the climatological peak of the north Atlantic hurricane season. This year holds true with three tropical cyclones in the Atlantic basin at this time. As of Wednesday morning, tropical storm Karl is about to make landfall south of Cozumel, Mexico. Hurricanes Igor and Julia are major hurricanes over the open Atlantic water. Igor will need to be watched though as forecasts call for it to come close to Bermuda by Sunday. Julia should remain over the open Atlantic waters.

Check out my forecasts below on my tropicalweather.net message boards if you will be taking a cruise or just have an interest in hurricanes. Thanks!

Rich Johnson – Tropicalweather.net
Weather / Hurricane Message boards
Facts about Lightning
Facts about Thunderstorms
Facts about Tornadoes

Sunrise / Sunset times
Beach water temps
Caribbean weather averages
weather channel

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Get ready for Earl on the east coast / Fiona in the Leewards

Posted by Hurricane Expert on August 31, 2010

earl and fiona

Earl and Fiona

Hurricane Earl is turning up the eastern seaboard over the next few days. It will be close to Cape Hatteras, Long Island and Cape Cod this week. Also, tropical storm Fiona will be near the Leewards Wednesday.

I will be updating my forecasts on my Tropicalweather.net website. Also, keep an eye out for my new iphone app TW weather…. where you can access the same great information while on the go. I’m hoping it will be out be later this week.
Rich Johnson – Tropicalweather.net
Weather / Hurricane Message boards
Facts about Lightning
Facts about Thunderstorms
Facts about Tornadoes

Sunrise / Sunset times
Beach water temps
Caribbean weather averages
weather channel

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Atlantic Hurricane season starts June 1

Posted by Hurricane Expert on May 27, 2010

Greg Long, Jamie Sterling

Greg Long, Jamie Sterling Surfing

The Atlantic hurricane season begins June 1.

NOAA predicts as many as 23 named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season, with three to seven becoming serious enough to be classified as major hurricanes. The agency worries that as many as 14 could turn into hurricanes.

On average, 10 storms are named of which 6 become hurricanes,, of those 2-3 become major hurricanes which is a category 3,4 or 5. Since 1997, the averages have increased to about 15 named storms of which 8 become hurricanes and of those 4 major hurricanes.

The reasoning behind the forecast is due to the fact that El Nino has weakened and a La Nina may be forming. There is a slight correlation between a La Nina event and upswing in activity.

Check my website on the latest hurricane forecasts. We simply do not copy the National Hurricane Center’s forecasts. We make our own forecasts and add expert opinion to the Hurricane Center’s forecast also. Check Tropicalweather.net’s forecasts before traveling to the tropics during hurricane season!

Rich Johnson – Tropicalweather.net

More about Rich Johnson…
Weather / Hurricane Message boards
Tropical Weather / Hurricane Forecasts / Travel
Sunrise / Sunset times
Beach water temps
weather channel

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