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Posts Tagged ‘hurricane center’

Irene heading into the northern Caribbean

Posted by Hurricane Expert on August 21, 2011

Irene near the Leewards

Tropical storm Irene will be disturbing travelers and residents of the northern Caribbean, Bahamas, Turks and Caicos and U.S. eastern seaboard over the next seven days. The track of Irene will be extremely important. As of this time, it appears that the track of Irene will take it over the northern Antilles then over or just east of Florida. The more land Irene encounters the more the circulation will get disturbed and inhibit development, especially Hispaniola (Dominican Republic and Haiti). A big concern is still the potential for flash flooding in Haiti where there is a history of large loss of life from tropical cyclones.

For interests in the U.S. the more favorable track would be directly up the Florida peninsula and into the Southeastern U.S. This would allow for beneficial rain and stop any further development. Keep in mind that there would possibly be problems with flash flooding, isolated tornadoes and wind / surge damage farther south. If Irene stays a little east of Florida, strengthening would continue increasing the damage potential from Florida into the Southeastern / Mid-Atlantic states.

It would be wise to follow the progress of Irene if you live or will be traveling in these threat areas. Remember – now is the time to prepare for the possible impacts from a hurricane, not the day before! Be safe and God bless!

Be sure to check out my forecasts on the message boards at Tropicalweather.net

Rich Johnson – Tropicalweather.net

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Tropics about to get more active

Posted by Hurricane Expert on August 18, 2011

Tropical Disturbance

Two tropical disturbances have potential for development in the Atlantic basin over the next several days. Of immediate concern is a tropical disturbance in the western Caribbean. It has the potential to be classified as a depression later today and could be a tropical storm before landfall this weekend near Belize.

The second tropical disturbance is much more worrysome. Forecast models for several days have been bringing a hurricane near the northern Caribbean and Florida by mid to late next week. I don’t put too much faith in the long range computer models since they “cry wolf” many times. It does concern me though that the models have been very persistent in forecasting this scenario for a number of days. This morning satellite imagery shows a more well defined disturbance in the central Atlantic which may point to the fact that the models knew what they were doing all along.

In any case residents and travelers to these parts of the tropics should follow both features, especially the central Atlantic tropical disturbance.

Be sure to check out my forecasts on the message boards at Tropicalweather.net

Rich Johnson – Tropicalweather.net
Weather / Hurricane Message boards
Facts about Lightning
Facts about hurricanes
Facts about Thunderstorms
Facts about Tornadoes

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Emily in Caribbean

Posted by Hurricane Expert on August 3, 2011

tropical storm Emily

Tropical storm Emily

Tropical storm Emily has been badly sheared and is not as strong as indicated. It this is the case it will head farther west than all of the models that you have been shown on TV. Check out my tropicalweather.net website for the latest on EMily.

Be sure to check out my forecasts at Tropicalweather.net

Rich Johnson – Tropicalweather.net
Weather / Hurricane Message boards
Facts about Lightning
Facts about hurricanes
Facts about Thunderstorms
Facts about Tornadoes

Sunrise / Sunset times
Beach water temps
Caribbean weather averages
weather channel

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Emily forming east of the Lesser Antilles

Posted by Hurricane Expert on July 31, 2011

emily forming

Emily Forming east of Antilles

The next named tropical system is well on its way. It is several hundred miles east of the Lesser Antilles this morning. The forecast track takes it into the Leewards over the next 2-3 days. After that, most models predict it to recurve east of the Bahamas with a few taking it into the Bahamas by next weekend. Keep in mind that the low hasn’t quite formed yet. Because of this forecast models can have significant errors.

Speculation has already started and no doubt the media outlets will be cranking up the hype machines to draw in big ratings money. To the media – remember… hurricanes hype themselves – stay calm – you can serve the public better that way!

Be sure to check out my forecasts at Tropicalweather.net

Rich Johnson – Tropicalweather.net
Weather / Hurricane Message boards
Facts about Lightning
Facts about hurricanes
Facts about Thunderstorms
Facts about Tornadoes

Sunrise / Sunset times
Beach water temps
Caribbean weather averages
weather channel

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Calvin in the Pacific – Caribbean unsettled

Posted by Hurricane Expert on July 7, 2011

Calvin

Calvin west of Mexico

So far it looks like the Atlantic hurricane basin is heading to an average season as the european forecasters have said. Granted that it could change fast at any time though. If you recall, U.S. forecasters were calling for another above average year. At this time we have had one tropical storm which is average for early July.

As of now an unclassified tropical cyclone is churning in the eastern Pacific and will definitely be named by the hurricane center later today. As of my estimate it is now a tropical depression and will be a storm this afternoon.

For the Caribbean travelers – there are no imminent threats but still unsettled weather. A string of upper air troughs is creasting some heavy showers from the northwest Caribbean to Puerto Rico and the Leewards. Enjoy your cruises, even it there is a (little) rain.

Be sure to check out my forecasts at Tropicalweather.net

Rich Johnson – Tropicalweather.net
Weather / Hurricane Message boards
Facts about Lightning
Facts about hurricanes
Facts about Thunderstorms
Facts about Tornadoes

Sunrise / Sunset times
Beach water temps
Caribbean weather averages
weather channel

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Hurricane Adrian starts the eastern Pacific hurricane season strong

Posted by Hurricane Expert on June 11, 2011

This slideshow requires JavaScript.

Hurricane Adrian started the eastern Pacific hurricane season with a bang. It strengthened into a category 4 hurricane west of Mexico to 140 mph late Thursday into early Friday. It ran the “typical” route for a hurricane in the eastern Pacific basin where it formed in the monsoon trough south of Mexico and moved on a west northwesterly course. It encounted colder water which robbed its energy source and weakened rapidly. The slideshow shows different satellite perspectives of Adrian: Visible, I.R. and Rainbow enhancement.

Rich Johnson – Tropicalweather.net
Weather / Hurricane Message boards
Facts about Lightning
Facts about hurricanes
Facts about Thunderstorms
Facts about Tornadoes

Sunrise / Sunset times
Beach water temps
Caribbean weather averages
weather channel

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Atlantic hurricane season 2011 begins Wednesday

Posted by Hurricane Expert on May 31, 2011

hurricane season 2011

The 2011 Atlantic hurricane season is here and is predicted to be an active one similar to last year. Contrary to some reports, this is not due to warmer than normal water in the Atlantic nor is a result from climate change. A large area of warmer than normal water may have some part in a more active hurricane season, but is not the overriding factor. Global weather weather patterns influenced by El Nino and La Nina as well as major a ocean circulation in the Atlantic are much larger features.

The number of tropical cyclones in the Atlantic basin are also cyclical. We have been in an “up” cycle since the mid 1990’s and will likely be in this cycle for another 10-15 years.

Regardless, of the amount of hurricanes expected, you should be finishing preseason hurricane preparedness. Here are some helpful tips on how to do just that: – Preseason hurricane preparedness

Don’t get caught without properly preparing for this hurricane season. Now is the time to prepare, not two days before a hurricane strikes!

Rich Johnson – Tropicalweather.net
Weather / Hurricane Message boards
Facts about Lightning
Facts about hurricanes
Facts about Thunderstorms
Facts about Tornadoes

Sunrise / Sunset times
Beach water temps
Caribbean weather averages
weather channel

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2011 hurricane season prediction

Posted by Hurricane Expert on May 9, 2011

Windwards / Leewards

My colleagues Dr. Phil Klotzback and Dr. Bill Gray announced at the hurricane conference in Atlanta that they are predicting 16 tropical storms of which 9 will become hurricanes and 5 will become major hurricanes. The long term average for hurrianes in the Atlantic basin are 10 tropical storms of which 6 become hurricanes and 3 major hurricanes.

A major hurricane is one considered a category 3,4 or 5 on ths Saffir – Simpson hurriane wind scale. Winds must be at least 111 mph sustained to be classified as a category 3. Remember, simply because we are expecting more hurricanes does not mean more landfalls. It does increase the risk though. Stay vigilant – stay prepared.

Rich Johnson – Tropicalweather.net
Weather / Hurricane Message boards
Facts about Lightning
Facts about Thunderstorms
Facts about Tornadoes

Sunrise / Sunset times
Beach water temps
Caribbean weather averages
weather channel

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2010 Atlantic hurricane season summary

Posted by Hurricane Expert on November 9, 2010

Hurricane Season 2010 summary

The 2010 Atlantic hurricane season turned out to be another busy one, keeping with the trend of more than the last 15 years. Four tropical cyclones gave the U.S. some effects. The most notable was from tropical storm Hermine which brought 5-10+ inches of rain to south and central Texas. There were no direct hits from hurricanes this season in the U.S.. Earl brushed the eastern coast with only a couple of gusts to near hurricane force on Cape Hatteras. Alex hit northeastern Mexico as a category two hurricane, but was a small tropical cyclone. Because of this, the wind damage remained in Mexico. South Texas did see some winds to tropical storm force, but most of the impacts were from locally heavy rainfall in extreme south Texas. Tropical storm Bonnie made landfall in south Florida early in the season with minimal effects. Overall, despite being a busy season, the U.S. fared well. Most of the tropical cyclones traveled the familiar route around the Bermuda high in the open Atlantic ocean.
Keep an eye on the tropics on my Tropicalweather.net weather message board.

Rich Johnson – Tropicalweather.net
Weather / Hurricane Message boards
Facts about Lightning
Facts about Thunderstorms
Facts about Tornadoes

Sunrise / Sunset times
Beach water temps
Caribbean weather averages
weather channel

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Tropical cyclone to develop in Caribbean this week?

Posted by Hurricane Expert on September 27, 2010

Tropical Weather

Tropical Weather

For many days now the forecast models have been hinting at a tropical cyclone developing in the northwest Caribbean. We had Matthew move into Honduras and Nicaragua a few days ago and now is slowly “spinning down” in southern Mexico. It continues to bring heavy rain.

It now appears that one or two tropical cyclones will develop in the northwest Caribbean this week and move across western Cuba and in the direction of south Florida. The first may be a tropical or subtropical system that develops and moves along the southeast coast of Florida and is due to move north toward the Carolinas along a stalled front.

After this system, the models are still developing another tropical system that may also move across western Cuba and north toward the general direction of south Florida or the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. Remember, longer range forecasts are subject to larger errors. It’s certainly worth keeping an eye on though. I will update my tropical weather forecasts as usual on my Tropicalweather.net weather message board. See you there!

Rich Johnson – Tropicalweather.net
Weather / Hurricane Message boards
Facts about Lightning
Facts about Thunderstorms
Facts about Tornadoes

Sunrise / Sunset times
Beach water temps
Caribbean weather averages
weather channel

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