Tropical system developing in southeastern Gulf of Mexico

Tropical Disturbance

A low pressure system is develping in the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. This unsettled weather was created by an upper air low pressure center. If one of these upper lows sits over warm water long enough they can transform into a tropical cyclone. It appears that this may be the case. Weather forecast models drift this tropical disturbance northwest toward the northcentral Gulf of Mexico over the next few days. It is forecast to strengthen before landfall. All interests in the northcentral gulf should follow the latest developments.

Join us at tropicalweather.net to get the latest information or chat on our message boards.

Rich Johnson – Tropicalweather.net

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Tropical storm Colin

Colin is fighting wind shear and is barely hanging on as a tropical storm. Forecasts indicate that Colin will continue to fight wind shear and is not predicted to reach hurricane status over the next several days. In fact, the wind shear will keep it fighting for survival for a while.

Colin’s track will take it a little northeast of the Leewards in about a day then start to recurve offshore of the eastern seabaord. Some forecasts take it east to near Bermuda, others considerable closer to the U.S. coast. Remember, forecasts estimates several days out have the greater chance of error.

Join me on the tropicalweather.net message boards to follow Colin or leave your own weather comments!

Rich Johnson – Tropicalweather.net

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Atlantic Hurricane season starts June 1

Greg Long, Jamie Sterling Surfing

The Atlantic hurricane season begins June 1.

NOAA predicts as many as 23 named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season, with three to seven becoming serious enough to be classified as major hurricanes. The agency worries that as many as 14 could turn into hurricanes.

On average, 10 storms are named of which 6 become hurricanes,, of those 2-3 become major hurricanes which is a category 3,4 or 5. Since 1997, the averages have increased to about 15 named storms of which 8 become hurricanes and of those 4 major hurricanes.

The reasoning behind the forecast is due to the fact that El Nino has weakened and a La Nina may be forming. There is a slight correlation between a La Nina event and upswing in activity.

Check my website on the latest hurricane forecasts. We simply do not copy the National Hurricane Center’s forecasts. We make our own forecasts and add expert opinion to the Hurricane Center’s forecast also. Check Tropicalweather.net’s forecasts before traveling to the tropics during hurricane season!

Rich Johnson – Tropicalweather.net

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How warm is the beach water now in Florida?

Dolphin

If you’re heading to the beach for spring break you may want to know exactly how cold that beach water is. Water temperatures are generally still fairly cold in early April for most of Florida. Recent reports show water temperatures in the low 60’s near Destin and Panama City Beach. Likewise the east coast from St. Augustine to Daytona Beach have been in the upper 50’s. Cocoa Beach a little farther south has been in the low 60’s. The warmest beach water temperatures are near West Palm Beach with readings in the mid 70’s. Miami’s South Beach and the Florida Keys have been in the low 70’s. Upper 60’s have been common on the sun coast. Keep in mind the water can warm fast this time of year. Check our link at the bottom for the most recent water temperatures. They are updated about once a week. Also please check out our weather forum and ask your weather questions there.

Rich Johnson – Tropicalweather.net

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Important changes to know about this upcoming hurricane season

The National Hurricane Center is going to be doing things a little bit differently this season. There have been some changes to the way watches and warnings are disseminated to the public. I have written a short summary and have included a link on my tropical weather message board under the “eye of the storm” forum.

Rich Johnson – Tropicalweather.net

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U.S. Gulf coast / Mid-Atlantic to stay stormy

Stormy February

It appears that the snowy / icy / rainy weather across the southern U.S. and Mid-Atlantic will continue for at least the first half of the month of February. There will be several significant storms developing in the western Gulf of Mexico over the next few weeks. These Gulf lows will likely bring more snow and ice to parts of the Gulf coastal states as well as into the Mid-Atlantic.

As for vacationers to Florida, snow and ice is very rare and at this time we’re not looking for any wintry weather. Cooler than average weather is likely for a day or two as a series of cold fronts move across the state over the next couple of weeks. Rain with thunderstoms will be associated with the cold fronts.

If you are travelling to the Caribbean to escape the cold and the snow, January is usually very pleasant with occasional cooler spells in the northwest Caribbean if a strong cold front makes it that far south.

Rich Johnson – Tropicalweather.net

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Caribbean weather during the winter

Lazy Shelties

With winter hurricanes and tropical storms becoming an extreme rarity in the Caribbean, what kind of weather can you expect? Usually winter and early spring is the driest time of year in the Caribbean. Rainfall drops from possibly 8-10 inches in the rainy season each month to about an inch or two. Cold fronts can venture well into the Caribbean and bring cooler weather with showers and storms.

Needless to say, with almost no chance of a hurricane and drier weather, the Caribbean is an excellent tourist destination. Why lay around the house like a couple of lazy dogs? Take a trip to the Caribbean.

Rich Johnson – Tropicalweather.net

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2009 Hurricane Season ending

Florida Beach

The 2009 hurricane season officially ends November 30. This hurricane season fits the mold of the long term averages. For the 2009 season there were 10 named storms of which 3 became hurricanes and of those 2 major hurricanes. A category 3 or higher on the Saffir_Simpson scale is considered major.

In the Atlantic basin, long term averages show that there are about 10 named storms of which 6 become hurricanes and 3 of those major hurricanes. Since 1995 there has been a major upswing in tropical cyclone activity. During this period there has been an average of 15 named storms of which 8 became hurricanes and 4 of those major hurricanes.

The return of El Nino was the likely cause in the decrease in tropical cyclone activity, especially affecting the number of hurricanes that formed. The El Nino causes an increase in wind shear which creates a hostile environment for hurricane development in gerneral.

Rich Johnson – Tropicalweather.net

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“Hurricane Ida” in the Gulf of Mexico

Ida in the Gulf of Mexico

Excellent news for travelers and those living on the north Gulf of Mexico coast. Ida in reality is no longer a hurricane. There has been a tremendous transformation overnight of Ida’s structure. For the latest on the tropics please visit my hurricane message board.

Rich Johnson – Tropicalweather.net

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Ida almost a hurricane

Ida in the northwest Caribbean

Ida, now in the northwestern Caribbean Sea is about to reach hurricane strength again. It officially was briefly a minimal hurricane before making landfall in eastern Nicagarua. Will Ida threaten the U.S. ? Check my Atlantic hurricane update for the latest on the tropics.

Rich Johnson – Tropicalweather.net

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