Hurricane Odile – One for the Record Books

Hurricane Odile formed off of the west central coast of Mexico several days ago. Weather forecast models showed Odile moving west of the Baja for several days. As the storm approached the models shifted eastward…..bad news for the resort area of Los Cabos on the southern tip of Baja California.





Hurricane Odile made landfall near Cabo San Lucas just before 10 pm local time on September 14th. It tied hurricane Olivia (1967) as the strongest hurricane to hit the southern Baja on record. Top sustained winds were estimated at 125 mph. Huge surf, high winds and heavy rainfall have battered the region since last night. Later today reports of the damage will be realized. Heavy rainfall may make its way into the southwestern U.S. Last week severe flooding washed out a major roadway north of Las Vegas. The southwest would welcome more rainfall in general, but not the flash flooding.

For a complete history of this hurricane check and its history. You can always get a quick hurricane update at my twitter account –

Peak of the hurricane season

The peak of the hurricane season is around September 10.  Searching satellite imagery, we find a weak disturbance just offshore of southeast Florida and a tropical depression in the deep tropics.  The disturbance near Florida will likely bring heavy rainfall to the region over the next few days.  The other feature, a tropical depression, has a chance to become a hurricane in a few days.  Forecast models have been persistent in keeping it well east of Bermuda, so will not be a threat to land.

Even though it is quiet now, it is still possible to get a hurricane that could affect the U.S. or Caribbean. So if you live near the Gulf coast or east coast continue to be watchful of the weather forecast. I will be updating my tropicalweather.net hurricane forecasts for the Atlantic ocean and eastern Pacific ocean.  Check the situation out there or find me on twitter for a quick update. https://twitter.com/fish_storm

Hurricane Arthur is no Sandy

Hurricane Arthur is making is way up the eastern seaboard on the 4th of July. This time no direct landfall will occur in the Northeast. Arthur will loose its tropical characteristics as did Sandy, over the cooler water off of the Mid-Atlantic coast. The difference this time is that Arthur will follow a more normal track up the coast as opposed to a turn to the west into the coast.

Arthur made landfall on the coast of North Carolina, but with minimal effects compared with Sandy. Over 20 thousand were without power. Some wind damage and water damage were also seen in the locations that don’t fare so well with these type of storms. Even though Arthur had estimated sustained winds of 100 mph, few if any gusts to that strength were noted. Ft. Macon, NC had a gust to 87 mph. Hatteras had a wind gust to 71 mph before the instrument stopped reporting. It is interesting to note that in a 100 mph hurricane gusts should have been measured to at least 115 mph. If Arthur was over forecast strength wise, the hurricane center did an excellent job in forecasting the track. Thankfully it stayed east of the populated Northeast.

Beryl now gone, Atlantic hurricane season begins…..

Beryl rainfall

Even before the official start of the Atlantic 2012 hurricane season, we have seen two tropical storms. Many years there is no activity up to this point. Tropical storms Alberto and Beryl both formed off of the Southeastern U.S. coast before eventually moving northeast into the Atlantic.

Is this a sign of a very busy season? Probably not, but the extended tropical prognositcations have been wrong before. Season forecasts suggest a “normal” amount of tropical cyclones in the Atlantic basin compared with what has been observed over the past few decades.

I will be doing something a little different this year. I have a iphone / ipad app called The Global Travel Forecast. I produce 3 day video forecasts for different regions around the globe. One of the regions is the Caribbean where I cover tropical weather. You can also get that same forecast on my tropicalweather.net site. Please tell your friends to stop by. Thanks!

Rich Johnson – Tropicalweather.net

First day of the 2012 eastern Pacific hurricane season

The eastern Pacific hurricane season is starting out quickly with a tropical storm well west of Mexico. Tropical storm Aletta actually jumped the gun and formed before the first offical day of the season! I have started my tropical updates as of this morning.

If you recall the Atlantic 2012 hurricane season is supposed to be close to “normal” What is normal? Well, it really depends on what time frame you look at….. more on that at a different time. The point I would like to make is that even if El Niño shows up and decreases activity in the Atlantic; the eastern Pacific still could be busy.

Have a safe vacation season and tell your friends to check out tropicalweather.net for tropical updates! Thanks!

Rich Johnson – Tropicalweather.net

2012 Atlantic hurricane season outlook

Dr. Bill Gray and Dr. Phip Klotzbock of Colorado State University have given a hint to their Atlantic hurricane season outlook. It appears that the eastern equatorial Pacific is warming signaling the start of an El Nino event. This is indicative of lesser than normal tropical cyclones in the Atlantic basin. Cooler waters in the Atlantic also suggest a lower than normal tropical cyclone season.

This forecast is based on the new “normal” tropical cyclone frequency since 1995 where there has been a marked upswing in the numbers of tropical cyclones in the Atlantic basin. This hurricane season is predicted to be close to the old “normal” of ten tropical storms of which six become hurricanes and one or two of those major hurricanes. A complete seasonal outlook will be realeased on April 4.

Rich Johnson – Tropicalweather.net

Recap of the 2011 Atlantic Hurricane Season

2011 Atlantic hurricane season recap

Before we start thinking about the upcoming hurricane season, let’s take a look back….

The 2011 Atlantic hurricane season produced 19 tropical storms of which seven became hurricanes. Of those seven hurricanes four became major hurricanes. As a reminder, a major hurricane is signified as a category three or higher on the Saffir-Simpson wind scale. ( winds of 111 mph or stronger ).

The United States was fortunate again, making this the six year in a row that there was not a landfalling major hurricane. The last was hurricane Wilma in 2005 when it hit southwest Florida in late October.

The hurricane season took an unusual start. There were eight tropical storms before a hurricane formed. That was Hurricane Irene which affected the Mid-Atlantic and Northeastern U.S. Two tropical storms did hit the U.S. in 2011. Don moved into south Texas in late July and Lee hit the central Louisiana coast in early September.

It was interesting to note that Bermuda was surrounded by several tropical cyclones but none made a direct hit. Powerful Ophelia steered well to the east sparing the island.

We’ll take a look at the upcoming 2012 hurricane season at a later date.

Rich Johnson – Tropicalweather.net

Irene to head up U.S. east coast this week

Irene in the Bahamas

Irene is strengthening rapidly today as it moves into the central Bahamas. It is likely to affect the eastern U.S. coast especially from North Carolina to New England. I will be busy updating my forecasts. Be sure to check out my forecasts on the message boards at Tropicalweather.net. Also, it you are a fan of facebook check out my tropicalweathr.net facebook page and hit “like” – thanks!

Rich Johnson – Tropicalweather.net

Tropics about to get more active

Tropical Disturbance

Two tropical disturbances have potential for development in the Atlantic basin over the next several days. Of immediate concern is a tropical disturbance in the western Caribbean. It has the potential to be classified as a depression later today and could be a tropical storm before landfall this weekend near Belize.

The second tropical disturbance is much more worrysome. Forecast models for several days have been bringing a hurricane near the northern Caribbean and Florida by mid to late next week. I don’t put too much faith in the long range computer models since they “cry wolf” many times. It does concern me though that the models have been very persistent in forecasting this scenario for a number of days. This morning satellite imagery shows a more well defined disturbance in the central Atlantic which may point to the fact that the models knew what they were doing all along.

In any case residents and travelers to these parts of the tropics should follow both features, especially the central Atlantic tropical disturbance.

Be sure to check out my forecasts on the message boards at Tropicalweather.net

Rich Johnson – Tropicalweather.net
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Emily in Caribbean

Tropical storm Emily

Tropical storm Emily has been badly sheared and is not as strong as indicated. It this is the case it will head farther west than all of the models that you have been shown on TV. Check out my tropicalweather.net website for the latest on EMily.

Be sure to check out my forecasts at Tropicalweather.net

Rich Johnson – Tropicalweather.net
Weather / Hurricane Message boards
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