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Posts Tagged ‘cruise forecast’

Irene heading into the northern Caribbean

Posted by Hurricane Expert on August 21, 2011

Irene near the Leewards

Tropical storm Irene will be disturbing travelers and residents of the northern Caribbean, Bahamas, Turks and Caicos and U.S. eastern seaboard over the next seven days. The track of Irene will be extremely important. As of this time, it appears that the track of Irene will take it over the northern Antilles then over or just east of Florida. The more land Irene encounters the more the circulation will get disturbed and inhibit development, especially Hispaniola (Dominican Republic and Haiti). A big concern is still the potential for flash flooding in Haiti where there is a history of large loss of life from tropical cyclones.

For interests in the U.S. the more favorable track would be directly up the Florida peninsula and into the Southeastern U.S. This would allow for beneficial rain and stop any further development. Keep in mind that there would possibly be problems with flash flooding, isolated tornadoes and wind / surge damage farther south. If Irene stays a little east of Florida, strengthening would continue increasing the damage potential from Florida into the Southeastern / Mid-Atlantic states.

It would be wise to follow the progress of Irene if you live or will be traveling in these threat areas. Remember – now is the time to prepare for the possible impacts from a hurricane, not the day before! Be safe and God bless!

Be sure to check out my forecasts on the message boards at Tropicalweather.net

Rich Johnson – Tropicalweather.net

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Tropics about to get more active

Posted by Hurricane Expert on August 18, 2011

Tropical Disturbance

Two tropical disturbances have potential for development in the Atlantic basin over the next several days. Of immediate concern is a tropical disturbance in the western Caribbean. It has the potential to be classified as a depression later today and could be a tropical storm before landfall this weekend near Belize.

The second tropical disturbance is much more worrysome. Forecast models for several days have been bringing a hurricane near the northern Caribbean and Florida by mid to late next week. I don’t put too much faith in the long range computer models since they “cry wolf” many times. It does concern me though that the models have been very persistent in forecasting this scenario for a number of days. This morning satellite imagery shows a more well defined disturbance in the central Atlantic which may point to the fact that the models knew what they were doing all along.

In any case residents and travelers to these parts of the tropics should follow both features, especially the central Atlantic tropical disturbance.

Be sure to check out my forecasts on the message boards at Tropicalweather.net

Rich Johnson – Tropicalweather.net
Weather / Hurricane Message boards
Facts about Lightning
Facts about hurricanes
Facts about Thunderstorms
Facts about Tornadoes

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Emily in Caribbean

Posted by Hurricane Expert on August 3, 2011

tropical storm Emily

Tropical storm Emily

Tropical storm Emily has been badly sheared and is not as strong as indicated. It this is the case it will head farther west than all of the models that you have been shown on TV. Check out my tropicalweather.net website for the latest on EMily.

Be sure to check out my forecasts at Tropicalweather.net

Rich Johnson – Tropicalweather.net
Weather / Hurricane Message boards
Facts about Lightning
Facts about hurricanes
Facts about Thunderstorms
Facts about Tornadoes

Sunrise / Sunset times
Beach water temps
Caribbean weather averages
weather channel

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Emily forming east of the Lesser Antilles

Posted by Hurricane Expert on July 31, 2011

emily forming

Emily Forming east of Antilles

The next named tropical system is well on its way. It is several hundred miles east of the Lesser Antilles this morning. The forecast track takes it into the Leewards over the next 2-3 days. After that, most models predict it to recurve east of the Bahamas with a few taking it into the Bahamas by next weekend. Keep in mind that the low hasn’t quite formed yet. Because of this forecast models can have significant errors.

Speculation has already started and no doubt the media outlets will be cranking up the hype machines to draw in big ratings money. To the media – remember… hurricanes hype themselves – stay calm – you can serve the public better that way!

Be sure to check out my forecasts at Tropicalweather.net

Rich Johnson – Tropicalweather.net
Weather / Hurricane Message boards
Facts about Lightning
Facts about hurricanes
Facts about Thunderstorms
Facts about Tornadoes

Sunrise / Sunset times
Beach water temps
Caribbean weather averages
weather channel

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Calvin in the Pacific – Caribbean unsettled

Posted by Hurricane Expert on July 7, 2011

Calvin

Calvin west of Mexico

So far it looks like the Atlantic hurricane basin is heading to an average season as the european forecasters have said. Granted that it could change fast at any time though. If you recall, U.S. forecasters were calling for another above average year. At this time we have had one tropical storm which is average for early July.

As of now an unclassified tropical cyclone is churning in the eastern Pacific and will definitely be named by the hurricane center later today. As of my estimate it is now a tropical depression and will be a storm this afternoon.

For the Caribbean travelers – there are no imminent threats but still unsettled weather. A string of upper air troughs is creasting some heavy showers from the northwest Caribbean to Puerto Rico and the Leewards. Enjoy your cruises, even it there is a (little) rain.

Be sure to check out my forecasts at Tropicalweather.net

Rich Johnson – Tropicalweather.net
Weather / Hurricane Message boards
Facts about Lightning
Facts about hurricanes
Facts about Thunderstorms
Facts about Tornadoes

Sunrise / Sunset times
Beach water temps
Caribbean weather averages
weather channel

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First official tropical system may try to form over next serval days in Gulf

Posted by Hurricane Expert on June 23, 2011

Tropical forecast models have been insisting that a tropical cyclone will form in the northwestern Caribbean or western Gulf over the next several days. The models generally take the system toward the Texas coast or northwestern Mexican east coast. Remember forecast models can be fickle. We are watching them closely but are not too concerned at this time. Interests on the Texas coast over the next week should keep an eye on this system.

Rich Johnson – Tropicalweather.net
Weather / Hurricane Message boards
Facts about Lightning
Facts about hurricanes
Facts about Thunderstorms
Facts about Tornadoes

Sunrise / Sunset times
Beach water temps
Caribbean weather averages
weather channel

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Peak of hurricane season

Posted by Hurricane Expert on September 15, 2010

Igor, Julia, Karl

Igor / Julia / Karl

September 10th is the climatological peak of the north Atlantic hurricane season. This year holds true with three tropical cyclones in the Atlantic basin at this time. As of Wednesday morning, tropical storm Karl is about to make landfall south of Cozumel, Mexico. Hurricanes Igor and Julia are major hurricanes over the open Atlantic water. Igor will need to be watched though as forecasts call for it to come close to Bermuda by Sunday. Julia should remain over the open Atlantic waters.

Check out my forecasts below on my tropicalweather.net message boards if you will be taking a cruise or just have an interest in hurricanes. Thanks!

Rich Johnson – Tropicalweather.net
Weather / Hurricane Message boards
Facts about Lightning
Facts about Thunderstorms
Facts about Tornadoes

Sunrise / Sunset times
Beach water temps
Caribbean weather averages
weather channel

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Get ready for Earl on the east coast / Fiona in the Leewards

Posted by Hurricane Expert on August 31, 2010

earl and fiona

Earl and Fiona

Hurricane Earl is turning up the eastern seaboard over the next few days. It will be close to Cape Hatteras, Long Island and Cape Cod this week. Also, tropical storm Fiona will be near the Leewards Wednesday.

I will be updating my forecasts on my Tropicalweather.net website. Also, keep an eye out for my new iphone app TW weather…. where you can access the same great information while on the go. I’m hoping it will be out be later this week.
Rich Johnson – Tropicalweather.net
Weather / Hurricane Message boards
Facts about Lightning
Facts about Thunderstorms
Facts about Tornadoes

Sunrise / Sunset times
Beach water temps
Caribbean weather averages
weather channel

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Tropical system developing in southeastern Gulf of Mexico

Posted by Hurricane Expert on August 10, 2010

Tropical Disturbance

A low pressure system is develping in the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. This unsettled weather was created by an upper air low pressure center. If one of these upper lows sits over warm water long enough they can transform into a tropical cyclone. It appears that this may be the case. Weather forecast models drift this tropical disturbance northwest toward the northcentral Gulf of Mexico over the next few days. It is forecast to strengthen before landfall. All interests in the northcentral gulf should follow the latest developments.

Join us at tropicalweather.net to get the latest information or chat on our message boards.

Rich Johnson – Tropicalweather.net

Facts about Lightning
Facts about Thunderstorms
Facts about Tornadoes

Sunrise / Sunset times
Beach water temps
Caribbean weather averages
weather channel
Weather / Hurricane Message boards

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Tropical storm Colin

Posted by Hurricane Expert on August 3, 2010

Tropical Storm Colin

Colin is fighting wind shear and is barely hanging on as a tropical storm. Forecasts indicate that Colin will continue to fight wind shear and is not predicted to reach hurricane status over the next several days. In fact, the wind shear will keep it fighting for survival for a while.

Colin’s track will take it a little northeast of the Leewards in about a day then start to recurve offshore of the eastern seabaord. Some forecasts take it east to near Bermuda, others considerable closer to the U.S. coast. Remember, forecasts estimates several days out have the greater chance of error.

Join me on the tropicalweather.net message boards to follow Colin or leave your own weather comments!

Rich Johnson – Tropicalweather.net

Facts about Lightning
Facts about Thunderstorms
Facts about Tornadoes

Sunrise / Sunset times
Beach water temps
Caribbean weather averages
weather channel
Weather / Hurricane Message boards

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