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Posts Tagged ‘bermuda’

Peak of the hurricane season

Posted by Hurricane Expert on September 11, 2014

The peak of the hurricane season is around September 10.  Searching satellite imagery, we find a weak disturbance just offshore of southeast Florida and a tropical depression in the deep tropics.  The disturbance near Florida will likely bring heavy rainfall to the region over the next few days.  The other feature, a tropical depression, has a chance to become a hurricane in a few days.  Forecast models have been persistent in keeping it well east of Bermuda, so will not be a threat to land.

The Tropics

Even though it is quiet now, it is still possible to get a hurricane that could affect the U.S. or Caribbean. So if you live near the Gulf coast or east coast continue to be watchful of the weather forecast. I will be updating my tropicalweather.net hurricane forecasts for the Atlantic ocean and eastern Pacific ocean.  Check the situation out there or find me on twitter for a quick update. https://twitter.com/fish_storm

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Beryl now gone, Atlantic hurricane season begins…..

Posted by Hurricane Expert on May 31, 2012

Beryl rainfall

Even before the official start of the Atlantic 2012 hurricane season, we have seen two tropical storms. Many years there is no activity up to this point. Tropical storms Alberto and Beryl both formed off of the Southeastern U.S. coast before eventually moving northeast into the Atlantic.

Is this a sign of a very busy season? Probably not, but the extended tropical prognositcations have been wrong before. Season forecasts suggest a “normal” amount of tropical cyclones in the Atlantic basin compared with what has been observed over the past few decades.

I will be doing something a little different this year. I have a iphone / ipad app called The Global Travel Forecast. I produce 3 day video forecasts for different regions around the globe. One of the regions is the Caribbean where I cover tropical weather. You can also get that same forecast on my tropicalweather.net site. Please tell your friends to stop by. Thanks!

Rich Johnson – Tropicalweather.net

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2012 Atlantic hurricane season outlook

Posted by Hurricane Expert on March 27, 2012

2012 Atlantic hurricane season outlook

Dr. Bill Gray and Dr. Phip Klotzbock of Colorado State University have given a hint to their Atlantic hurricane season outlook. It appears that the eastern equatorial Pacific is warming signaling the start of an El Nino event. This is indicative of lesser than normal tropical cyclones in the Atlantic basin. Cooler waters in the Atlantic also suggest a lower than normal tropical cyclone season.

This forecast is based on the new “normal” tropical cyclone frequency since 1995 where there has been a marked upswing in the numbers of tropical cyclones in the Atlantic basin. This hurricane season is predicted to be close to the old “normal” of ten tropical storms of which six become hurricanes and one or two of those major hurricanes. A complete seasonal outlook will be realeased on April 4.

Rich Johnson – Tropicalweather.net

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Recap of the 2011 Atlantic Hurricane Season

Posted by Hurricane Expert on February 6, 2012

2011 Atlantic hurricane season recap


Before we start thinking about the upcoming hurricane season, let’s take a look back….

The 2011 Atlantic hurricane season produced 19 tropical storms of which seven became hurricanes. Of those seven hurricanes four became major hurricanes. As a reminder, a major hurricane is signified as a category three or higher on the Saffir-Simpson wind scale. ( winds of 111 mph or stronger ).

The United States was fortunate again, making this the six year in a row that there was not a landfalling major hurricane. The last was hurricane Wilma in 2005 when it hit southwest Florida in late October.

The hurricane season took an unusual start. There were eight tropical storms before a hurricane formed. That was Hurricane Irene which affected the Mid-Atlantic and Northeastern U.S. Two tropical storms did hit the U.S. in 2011. Don moved into south Texas in late July and Lee hit the central Louisiana coast in early September.

It was interesting to note that Bermuda was surrounded by several tropical cyclones but none made a direct hit. Powerful Ophelia steered well to the east sparing the island.

We’ll take a look at the upcoming 2012 hurricane season at a later date.

Rich Johnson – Tropicalweather.net

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Katia expected to become a hurricane soon

Posted by Hurricane Expert on August 31, 2011

Katia in eastern Atlantic

Katia is expected to become a hurricane during the next 24 hours and possibly a major one after that. Preliminary forecasts keep Katia north of the Caribbean, but possibly may affect Bermuda early next week. It’s too early to tell yet.

Be sure to check out my forecasts on the message boards at Tropicalweather.net. Also, it you are a fan of facebook check out my tropicalweathr.net facebook page and hit “like” – thanks!

Rich Johnson – Tropicalweather.net

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Emily forming east of the Lesser Antilles

Posted by Hurricane Expert on July 31, 2011

emily forming

Emily Forming east of Antilles

The next named tropical system is well on its way. It is several hundred miles east of the Lesser Antilles this morning. The forecast track takes it into the Leewards over the next 2-3 days. After that, most models predict it to recurve east of the Bahamas with a few taking it into the Bahamas by next weekend. Keep in mind that the low hasn’t quite formed yet. Because of this forecast models can have significant errors.

Speculation has already started and no doubt the media outlets will be cranking up the hype machines to draw in big ratings money. To the media – remember… hurricanes hype themselves – stay calm – you can serve the public better that way!

Be sure to check out my forecasts at Tropicalweather.net

Rich Johnson – Tropicalweather.net
Weather / Hurricane Message boards
Facts about Lightning
Facts about hurricanes
Facts about Thunderstorms
Facts about Tornadoes

Sunrise / Sunset times
Beach water temps
Caribbean weather averages
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Atlantic hurricane season 2011 begins Wednesday

Posted by Hurricane Expert on May 31, 2011

hurricane season 2011

The 2011 Atlantic hurricane season is here and is predicted to be an active one similar to last year. Contrary to some reports, this is not due to warmer than normal water in the Atlantic nor is a result from climate change. A large area of warmer than normal water may have some part in a more active hurricane season, but is not the overriding factor. Global weather weather patterns influenced by El Nino and La Nina as well as major a ocean circulation in the Atlantic are much larger features.

The number of tropical cyclones in the Atlantic basin are also cyclical. We have been in an “up” cycle since the mid 1990’s and will likely be in this cycle for another 10-15 years.

Regardless, of the amount of hurricanes expected, you should be finishing preseason hurricane preparedness. Here are some helpful tips on how to do just that: – Preseason hurricane preparedness

Don’t get caught without properly preparing for this hurricane season. Now is the time to prepare, not two days before a hurricane strikes!

Rich Johnson – Tropicalweather.net
Weather / Hurricane Message boards
Facts about Lightning
Facts about hurricanes
Facts about Thunderstorms
Facts about Tornadoes

Sunrise / Sunset times
Beach water temps
Caribbean weather averages
weather channel

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Tropical storm Colin

Posted by Hurricane Expert on August 3, 2010

Tropical Storm Colin

Colin is fighting wind shear and is barely hanging on as a tropical storm. Forecasts indicate that Colin will continue to fight wind shear and is not predicted to reach hurricane status over the next several days. In fact, the wind shear will keep it fighting for survival for a while.

Colin’s track will take it a little northeast of the Leewards in about a day then start to recurve offshore of the eastern seabaord. Some forecasts take it east to near Bermuda, others considerable closer to the U.S. coast. Remember, forecasts estimates several days out have the greater chance of error.

Join me on the tropicalweather.net message boards to follow Colin or leave your own weather comments!

Rich Johnson – Tropicalweather.net

Facts about Lightning
Facts about Thunderstorms
Facts about Tornadoes

Sunrise / Sunset times
Beach water temps
Caribbean weather averages
weather channel
Weather / Hurricane Message boards

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Atlantic Hurricane season starts June 1

Posted by Hurricane Expert on May 27, 2010

Greg Long, Jamie Sterling

Greg Long, Jamie Sterling Surfing

The Atlantic hurricane season begins June 1.

NOAA predicts as many as 23 named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season, with three to seven becoming serious enough to be classified as major hurricanes. The agency worries that as many as 14 could turn into hurricanes.

On average, 10 storms are named of which 6 become hurricanes,, of those 2-3 become major hurricanes which is a category 3,4 or 5. Since 1997, the averages have increased to about 15 named storms of which 8 become hurricanes and of those 4 major hurricanes.

The reasoning behind the forecast is due to the fact that El Nino has weakened and a La Nina may be forming. There is a slight correlation between a La Nina event and upswing in activity.

Check my website on the latest hurricane forecasts. We simply do not copy the National Hurricane Center’s forecasts. We make our own forecasts and add expert opinion to the Hurricane Center’s forecast also. Check Tropicalweather.net’s forecasts before traveling to the tropics during hurricane season!

Rich Johnson – Tropicalweather.net

More about Rich Johnson…
Weather / Hurricane Message boards
Tropical Weather / Hurricane Forecasts / Travel
Sunrise / Sunset times
Beach water temps
weather channel

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Important changes to know about this upcoming hurricane season

Posted by Hurricane Expert on February 22, 2010

The National Hurricane Center is going to be doing things a little bit differently this season. There have been some changes to the way watches and warnings are disseminated to the public. I have written a short summary and have included a link on my tropical weather message board under the “eye of the storm” forum.

Rich Johnson – Tropicalweather.net

More about Rich Johnson…
Weather / Hurricane Message boards
Tropical Weather / Hurricane Forecasts / Travel
Sunrise / Sunset times
Beach water temps
weather channel

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