EPAC Hurricane Season

Hurricane season in the eastern Pacific starts today – May 15th. It begins two weeks earlier than the Atlantic hurricane season. All is quiet at this time.

Beryl now gone, Atlantic hurricane season begins…..

Beryl rainfall

Even before the official start of the Atlantic 2012 hurricane season, we have seen two tropical storms. Many years there is no activity up to this point. Tropical storms Alberto and Beryl both formed off of the Southeastern U.S. coast before eventually moving northeast into the Atlantic.

Is this a sign of a very busy season? Probably not, but the extended tropical prognositcations have been wrong before. Season forecasts suggest a “normal” amount of tropical cyclones in the Atlantic basin compared with what has been observed over the past few decades.

I will be doing something a little different this year. I have a iphone / ipad app called The Global Travel Forecast. I produce 3 day video forecasts for different regions around the globe. One of the regions is the Caribbean where I cover tropical weather. You can also get that same forecast on my tropicalweather.net site. Please tell your friends to stop by. Thanks!

Rich Johnson – Tropicalweather.net

First day of the 2012 eastern Pacific hurricane season

The eastern Pacific hurricane season is starting out quickly with a tropical storm well west of Mexico. Tropical storm Aletta actually jumped the gun and formed before the first offical day of the season! I have started my tropical updates as of this morning.

If you recall the Atlantic 2012 hurricane season is supposed to be close to “normal” What is normal? Well, it really depends on what time frame you look at….. more on that at a different time. The point I would like to make is that even if El Niño shows up and decreases activity in the Atlantic; the eastern Pacific still could be busy.

Have a safe vacation season and tell your friends to check out tropicalweather.net for tropical updates! Thanks!

Rich Johnson – Tropicalweather.net

Calvin in the Pacific – Caribbean unsettled

Calvin west of Mexico

So far it looks like the Atlantic hurricane basin is heading to an average season as the european forecasters have said. Granted that it could change fast at any time though. If you recall, U.S. forecasters were calling for another above average year. At this time we have had one tropical storm which is average for early July.

As of now an unclassified tropical cyclone is churning in the eastern Pacific and will definitely be named by the hurricane center later today. As of my estimate it is now a tropical depression and will be a storm this afternoon.

For the Caribbean travelers – there are no imminent threats but still unsettled weather. A string of upper air troughs is creasting some heavy showers from the northwest Caribbean to Puerto Rico and the Leewards. Enjoy your cruises, even it there is a (little) rain.

Be sure to check out my forecasts at Tropicalweather.net

Rich Johnson – Tropicalweather.net
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Hurricane Adrian starts the eastern Pacific hurricane season strong

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Hurricane Adrian started the eastern Pacific hurricane season with a bang. It strengthened into a category 4 hurricane west of Mexico to 140 mph late Thursday into early Friday. It ran the “typical” route for a hurricane in the eastern Pacific basin where it formed in the monsoon trough south of Mexico and moved on a west northwesterly course. It encounted colder water which robbed its energy source and weakened rapidly. The slideshow shows different satellite perspectives of Adrian: Visible, I.R. and Rainbow enhancement.

Rich Johnson – Tropicalweather.net
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Eastern Pacific Hurricane Season Starts Saturday

Caribbean Beach

That’s right, hurricane season is almost here….for the eastern Pacific. Saturday, May 15 is the start of the hurricane season for places like, Acalpulco, Cabo San Lucas and many other Mexican Resorts on the west coast. Check my hurricane updates on the central and eastern Pacific hurricane season. And just a reminder, the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season starts in two weeks. Make sure you start your preseason preparations now!

Rich Johnson – Tropicalweather.net

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Caribbean weather during the winter

Lazy Shelties

With winter hurricanes and tropical storms becoming an extreme rarity in the Caribbean, what kind of weather can you expect? Usually winter and early spring is the driest time of year in the Caribbean. Rainfall drops from possibly 8-10 inches in the rainy season each month to about an inch or two. Cold fronts can venture well into the Caribbean and bring cooler weather with showers and storms.

Needless to say, with almost no chance of a hurricane and drier weather, the Caribbean is an excellent tourist destination. Why lay around the house like a couple of lazy dogs? Take a trip to the Caribbean.

Rich Johnson – Tropicalweather.net

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2009 Hurricane Season ending

Florida Beach

The 2009 hurricane season officially ends November 30. This hurricane season fits the mold of the long term averages. For the 2009 season there were 10 named storms of which 3 became hurricanes and of those 2 major hurricanes. A category 3 or higher on the Saffir_Simpson scale is considered major.

In the Atlantic basin, long term averages show that there are about 10 named storms of which 6 become hurricanes and 3 of those major hurricanes. Since 1995 there has been a major upswing in tropical cyclone activity. During this period there has been an average of 15 named storms of which 8 became hurricanes and 4 of those major hurricanes.

The return of El Nino was the likely cause in the decrease in tropical cyclone activity, especially affecting the number of hurricanes that formed. The El Nino causes an increase in wind shear which creates a hostile environment for hurricane development in gerneral.

Rich Johnson – Tropicalweather.net

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Tropical weather picks up for mid October

Hurricane Rick

Eastern Pacific Hurricane Rick at this time is in the eastern Pacific, just far enough off of the coast to not cause any major problems. Top sustained winds are estimated at 180 mph. That makes it the second strongest hurricane on record in the eastern Pacific. Down the road a few days Los Cabos will need to deal with Rick, very possibly still a hurricane. Residents and visitors to Cabo San Lucas and the southern Baja in general should watch Rick closely. Rick is forecast to be in the area by Wednesday. For more on the Hurricane Rick check my Pacific hurricane update.

Caribbean A growing area of unsettled weather is in the western Caribbean Sea this Sunday morning. Some forecast models try to develop this tropical weather feature into the middle of next week. Check my Atlantic tropical weather update for the lastest on this system.

Rich Johnson – Tropicalweather.net

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Hurricane Jimena takes aim at the southern Baja

Hurricane Jimena south of Baja

The great majority of eastern north Pacific hurricanes curn their way harmlessly out to sea. Only fringe effects of rough surf or heavy rain bands venture onshore. Hurricane Jimena will be different. It was a strong category four on the Saffir-Simpson Scale, capable of doing extensive damage especially to substandard buildings.

Jimena is expected to make landfall Tuesday night or early Wednesday morning. It still may be a major hurricane before making landfall. Check my Pacific update for the latest on Jimena.

Rich Johnson – Tropicalweather.net

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