Simon, another major hurricane in the eastern Pacific

Hurricane Simon became the sixth category four hurricane in the eastern Pacific this season. While the Atlantic has been quiet again this year the eastern Pacific has been very busy. Thankfully Simon has tracked in the more common area that tropical cyclones follow – west of Cabo San Lucas.

Hurricane Simon

The resort area of Cabo San Lucas is still recovering from Hurricane Odile from a few weeks ago. Odile came onshore as a category three hurricane. This time around the Baja of Mexico has only had to deal with rain bands and higher than normal surf on their west facing beaches. Hurricane season does not end until November 30th.

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Hurricane Odile – One for the Record Books

Hurricane Odile formed off of the west central coast of Mexico several days ago. Weather forecast models showed Odile moving west of the Baja for several days. As the storm approached the models shifted eastward…..bad news for the resort area of Los Cabos on the southern tip of Baja California.





Hurricane Odile made landfall near Cabo San Lucas just before 10 pm local time on September 14th. It tied hurricane Olivia (1967) as the strongest hurricane to hit the southern Baja on record. Top sustained winds were estimated at 125 mph. Huge surf, high winds and heavy rainfall have battered the region since last night. Later today reports of the damage will be realized. Heavy rainfall may make its way into the southwestern U.S. Last week severe flooding washed out a major roadway north of Las Vegas. The southwest would welcome more rainfall in general, but not the flash flooding.

For a complete history of this hurricane check and its history. You can always get a quick hurricane update at my twitter account –

Beryl now gone, Atlantic hurricane season begins…..

Beryl rainfall

Even before the official start of the Atlantic 2012 hurricane season, we have seen two tropical storms. Many years there is no activity up to this point. Tropical storms Alberto and Beryl both formed off of the Southeastern U.S. coast before eventually moving northeast into the Atlantic.

Is this a sign of a very busy season? Probably not, but the extended tropical prognositcations have been wrong before. Season forecasts suggest a “normal” amount of tropical cyclones in the Atlantic basin compared with what has been observed over the past few decades.

I will be doing something a little different this year. I have a iphone / ipad app called The Global Travel Forecast. I produce 3 day video forecasts for different regions around the globe. One of the regions is the Caribbean where I cover tropical weather. You can also get that same forecast on my tropicalweather.net site. Please tell your friends to stop by. Thanks!

Rich Johnson – Tropicalweather.net

First day of the 2012 eastern Pacific hurricane season

The eastern Pacific hurricane season is starting out quickly with a tropical storm well west of Mexico. Tropical storm Aletta actually jumped the gun and formed before the first offical day of the season! I have started my tropical updates as of this morning.

If you recall the Atlantic 2012 hurricane season is supposed to be close to “normal” What is normal? Well, it really depends on what time frame you look at….. more on that at a different time. The point I would like to make is that even if El Niño shows up and decreases activity in the Atlantic; the eastern Pacific still could be busy.

Have a safe vacation season and tell your friends to check out tropicalweather.net for tropical updates! Thanks!

Rich Johnson – Tropicalweather.net

Recap of the 2011 Atlantic Hurricane Season

2011 Atlantic hurricane season recap

Before we start thinking about the upcoming hurricane season, let’s take a look back….

The 2011 Atlantic hurricane season produced 19 tropical storms of which seven became hurricanes. Of those seven hurricanes four became major hurricanes. As a reminder, a major hurricane is signified as a category three or higher on the Saffir-Simpson wind scale. ( winds of 111 mph or stronger ).

The United States was fortunate again, making this the six year in a row that there was not a landfalling major hurricane. The last was hurricane Wilma in 2005 when it hit southwest Florida in late October.

The hurricane season took an unusual start. There were eight tropical storms before a hurricane formed. That was Hurricane Irene which affected the Mid-Atlantic and Northeastern U.S. Two tropical storms did hit the U.S. in 2011. Don moved into south Texas in late July and Lee hit the central Louisiana coast in early September.

It was interesting to note that Bermuda was surrounded by several tropical cyclones but none made a direct hit. Powerful Ophelia steered well to the east sparing the island.

We’ll take a look at the upcoming 2012 hurricane season at a later date.

Rich Johnson – Tropicalweather.net

Calvin in the Pacific – Caribbean unsettled

Calvin west of Mexico

So far it looks like the Atlantic hurricane basin is heading to an average season as the european forecasters have said. Granted that it could change fast at any time though. If you recall, U.S. forecasters were calling for another above average year. At this time we have had one tropical storm which is average for early July.

As of now an unclassified tropical cyclone is churning in the eastern Pacific and will definitely be named by the hurricane center later today. As of my estimate it is now a tropical depression and will be a storm this afternoon.

For the Caribbean travelers – there are no imminent threats but still unsettled weather. A string of upper air troughs is creasting some heavy showers from the northwest Caribbean to Puerto Rico and the Leewards. Enjoy your cruises, even it there is a (little) rain.

Be sure to check out my forecasts at Tropicalweather.net

Rich Johnson – Tropicalweather.net
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Hurricane Adrian starts the eastern Pacific hurricane season strong

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Hurricane Adrian started the eastern Pacific hurricane season with a bang. It strengthened into a category 4 hurricane west of Mexico to 140 mph late Thursday into early Friday. It ran the “typical” route for a hurricane in the eastern Pacific basin where it formed in the monsoon trough south of Mexico and moved on a west northwesterly course. It encounted colder water which robbed its energy source and weakened rapidly. The slideshow shows different satellite perspectives of Adrian: Visible, I.R. and Rainbow enhancement.

Rich Johnson – Tropicalweather.net
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Tropical storm Colin

Colin is fighting wind shear and is barely hanging on as a tropical storm. Forecasts indicate that Colin will continue to fight wind shear and is not predicted to reach hurricane status over the next several days. In fact, the wind shear will keep it fighting for survival for a while.

Colin’s track will take it a little northeast of the Leewards in about a day then start to recurve offshore of the eastern seabaord. Some forecasts take it east to near Bermuda, others considerable closer to the U.S. coast. Remember, forecasts estimates several days out have the greater chance of error.

Join me on the tropicalweather.net message boards to follow Colin or leave your own weather comments!

Rich Johnson – Tropicalweather.net

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Atlantic Hurricane season starts June 1

Greg Long, Jamie Sterling Surfing

The Atlantic hurricane season begins June 1.

NOAA predicts as many as 23 named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season, with three to seven becoming serious enough to be classified as major hurricanes. The agency worries that as many as 14 could turn into hurricanes.

On average, 10 storms are named of which 6 become hurricanes,, of those 2-3 become major hurricanes which is a category 3,4 or 5. Since 1997, the averages have increased to about 15 named storms of which 8 become hurricanes and of those 4 major hurricanes.

The reasoning behind the forecast is due to the fact that El Nino has weakened and a La Nina may be forming. There is a slight correlation between a La Nina event and upswing in activity.

Check my website on the latest hurricane forecasts. We simply do not copy the National Hurricane Center’s forecasts. We make our own forecasts and add expert opinion to the Hurricane Center’s forecast also. Check Tropicalweather.net’s forecasts before traveling to the tropics during hurricane season!

Rich Johnson – Tropicalweather.net

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Eastern Pacific Hurricane Season Starts Saturday

Caribbean Beach

That’s right, hurricane season is almost here….for the eastern Pacific. Saturday, May 15 is the start of the hurricane season for places like, Acalpulco, Cabo San Lucas and many other Mexican Resorts on the west coast. Check my hurricane updates on the central and eastern Pacific hurricane season. And just a reminder, the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season starts in two weeks. Make sure you start your preseason preparations now!

Rich Johnson – Tropicalweather.net

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