Tropical Cyclone Cebile

Tropical Cyclone Cebile is over the southern Indian Ocean.  It is what as know to us here in the U.S. as a category four hurricane.  It is spinning “backwards”, as low pressure systems in the southern hemisphere spin clockwise.  It is posing now harm to land at this time.

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2018 Hurricane Season

The 2017 hurricane season was one for the record books with two category 4 hurricanes making landfall in the U.S. and two category 5 hurricanes hitting the Caribbean. It is unlikely that we’ll see two years in a row with such destruction. The first of the 2018 hurricane season outlooks will be out early this year. Very early estimates suggest another above average year.

EPAC Hurricane Season

Hurricane season in the eastern Pacific starts today – May 15th. It begins two weeks earlier than the Atlantic hurricane season. All is quiet at this time.

Cruise Forecasts

WordPress friends,

I have just finished redesigning my hurricane / tropical weather and travel website. It is full of great information about hurricanes and your favorite tropical travel destination. I have travel weather articles written about most Caribbean islands, Mexico, Bermuda, Florida and Hawaii. So before you head off to your next vacation, check what the weather may bring for that time of year. Sunrise and sunset times are also included.

So please stop by at my newly redesigned site that includeds Cruise Weather and Hurricane Forecasts. I would love to have your feedback! Also, for a nominal price I will begin providing cruise forecasts. You can receive a forecast for the islands that you’ll be visiting and also the days at sea.

Thanks!

It looks like another year without a Florida hurricane

Another year without a Florida Hurricane?

The last time a hurricane hit the state of Florida was back in October of 2005. That was nine years ago. That was also of course the last time a major hurricane hit the state too. According to the long term average the north Atlantic hurricane season produces 9 tropical storms of which 5 become hurricanes and 2 become major hurricanes. More recently, since 1995-2013 the average have jumped upwards. During that time period there was an average of 15 named storms of which 8 became hurricanes and 4 became major hurricanes.

Is it possible that was now settling back to “normal” condition? As of mid November, there have been 7 tropical storms of which 6 became hurricanes and of those 2 major hurricanes. With this being said, Hurricanes, Bertha, Christobal, and Fay may not even have been truly hurricanes. Each was classified as a hurricane for a very short period of time. If this was the case, the hurricane season would have produced 7 tropical storms of which only 3 became hurricanes.

Hurricane activity in the north Atlantic basin fluctuates will periods of higher tropical cyclone activity roughly every 15-25 years. Is it possible that we are just heading back into a lower activity period? One thing that can be stated with confidence, is that Global Warming has not contributed to the higher than average activity over the past 20 years. It is normal for climate to fluctuate. Hopefully, Florida and the rest of the U.S. coastline will see less landfalls in the upcoming years!

For more on tropical weather check Tropicalweather.net Twitter: https://twitter.com/fish_storm Facebook updates: Tropicalweather.net facebook page

Simon, another major hurricane in the eastern Pacific

Hurricane Simon became the sixth category four hurricane in the eastern Pacific this season. While the Atlantic has been quiet again this year the eastern Pacific has been very busy. Thankfully Simon has tracked in the more common area that tropical cyclones follow – west of Cabo San Lucas.

Hurricane Simon

The resort area of Cabo San Lucas is still recovering from Hurricane Odile from a few weeks ago. Odile came onshore as a category three hurricane. This time around the Baja of Mexico has only had to deal with rain bands and higher than normal surf on their west facing beaches. Hurricane season does not end until November 30th.

Hurricane Odile – One for the Record Books

Hurricane Odile formed off of the west central coast of Mexico several days ago. Weather forecast models showed Odile moving west of the Baja for several days. As the storm approached the models shifted eastward…..bad news for the resort area of Los Cabos on the southern tip of Baja California.





Hurricane Odile made landfall near Cabo San Lucas just before 10 pm local time on September 14th. It tied hurricane Olivia (1967) as the strongest hurricane to hit the southern Baja on record. Top sustained winds were estimated at 125 mph. Huge surf, high winds and heavy rainfall have battered the region since last night. Later today reports of the damage will be realized. Heavy rainfall may make its way into the southwestern U.S. Last week severe flooding washed out a major roadway north of Las Vegas. The southwest would welcome more rainfall in general, but not the flash flooding.

For a complete history of this hurricane check and its history. You can always get a quick hurricane update at my twitter account –

Peak of the hurricane season

The peak of the hurricane season is around September 10.  Searching satellite imagery, we find a weak disturbance just offshore of southeast Florida and a tropical depression in the deep tropics.  The disturbance near Florida will likely bring heavy rainfall to the region over the next few days.  The other feature, a tropical depression, has a chance to become a hurricane in a few days.  Forecast models have been persistent in keeping it well east of Bermuda, so will not be a threat to land.

Even though it is quiet now, it is still possible to get a hurricane that could affect the U.S. or Caribbean. So if you live near the Gulf coast or east coast continue to be watchful of the weather forecast. I will be updating my tropicalweather.net hurricane forecasts for the Atlantic ocean and eastern Pacific ocean.  Check the situation out there or find me on twitter for a quick update. https://twitter.com/fish_storm

Hurricane Arthur is no Sandy

Hurricane Arthur is making is way up the eastern seaboard on the 4th of July. This time no direct landfall will occur in the Northeast. Arthur will loose its tropical characteristics as did Sandy, over the cooler water off of the Mid-Atlantic coast. The difference this time is that Arthur will follow a more normal track up the coast as opposed to a turn to the west into the coast.

Arthur made landfall on the coast of North Carolina, but with minimal effects compared with Sandy. Over 20 thousand were without power. Some wind damage and water damage were also seen in the locations that don’t fare so well with these type of storms. Even though Arthur had estimated sustained winds of 100 mph, few if any gusts to that strength were noted. Ft. Macon, NC had a gust to 87 mph. Hatteras had a wind gust to 71 mph before the instrument stopped reporting. It is interesting to note that in a 100 mph hurricane gusts should have been measured to at least 115 mph. If Arthur was over forecast strength wise, the hurricane center did an excellent job in forecasting the track. Thankfully it stayed east of the populated Northeast.

Eastern Pacific hurricane season starts off fast

Hurricane Christina is the second category hurricane of the eastern pacific hurricane season. It topped out at 150 mph. Hurricane Amanda was estimated at 155 mph. So far the Atlantic hurricane season has been slow, although that is not unusual. The eastern pacific hurricane season started May 15 and the atlantic season started June 1.