Beryl heading for Jacksonville, FL

Subtropical storm Beryl

A rare landfall of a tropical cyclone will occur late today near Jacksonville, FL. Because of the shape of the coastline near Jacksonville, most tropical cyclones pass to the east offshore. More times than not, this area gets “side swiped” as a tropical storm or hurricane moves by. This time a wsw motion will carry Subtropical storm Beryl into the northeast Florida coast.

It is interesting to note that the official Atlantic hurricane season hasn’t even started – it begins on June 1st. Last week tropical storm Alberto nearly made a landfall in this same location. Alberto stalled about 50 – 100 miles east of the coast then moved away. Beryl will make landfall as a tropical storm as it completely loses subtropical characteristics today. Don’t look for much damage either as weather reporters line up on the coast to “inform” us. This storm will be more of a help as it brings very beneficial rainfall to north Florida and south Georgia. Check out tropicalweather.net for the latest.
Rich Johnson – Tropicalweather.net

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First day of the 2012 eastern Pacific hurricane season

The eastern Pacific hurricane season is starting out quickly with a tropical storm well west of Mexico. Tropical storm Aletta actually jumped the gun and formed before the first offical day of the season! I have started my tropical updates as of this morning.

If you recall the Atlantic 2012 hurricane season is supposed to be close to “normal” What is normal? Well, it really depends on what time frame you look at….. more on that at a different time. The point I would like to make is that even if El Niño shows up and decreases activity in the Atlantic; the eastern Pacific still could be busy.

Have a safe vacation season and tell your friends to check out tropicalweather.net for tropical updates! Thanks!

Rich Johnson – Tropicalweather.net

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2012 Atlantic hurricane season outlook

Dr. Bill Gray and Dr. Phip Klotzbock of Colorado State University have given a hint to their Atlantic hurricane season outlook. It appears that the eastern equatorial Pacific is warming signaling the start of an El Nino event. This is indicative of lesser than normal tropical cyclones in the Atlantic basin. Cooler waters in the Atlantic also suggest a lower than normal tropical cyclone season.

This forecast is based on the new “normal” tropical cyclone frequency since 1995 where there has been a marked upswing in the numbers of tropical cyclones in the Atlantic basin. This hurricane season is predicted to be close to the old “normal” of ten tropical storms of which six become hurricanes and one or two of those major hurricanes. A complete seasonal outlook will be realeased on April 4.

Rich Johnson – Tropicalweather.net

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Sheltie

I just added a page to my website which details the weather at Myrtle Beach, SC. Myrtle Beach Weather
Feel free to send any feedback.

Rich Johnson – Tropicalweather.net
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Recap of the 2011 Atlantic Hurricane Season

2011 Atlantic hurricane season recap

Before we start thinking about the upcoming hurricane season, let’s take a look back….

The 2011 Atlantic hurricane season produced 19 tropical storms of which seven became hurricanes. Of those seven hurricanes four became major hurricanes. As a reminder, a major hurricane is signified as a category three or higher on the Saffir-Simpson wind scale. ( winds of 111 mph or stronger ).

The United States was fortunate again, making this the six year in a row that there was not a landfalling major hurricane. The last was hurricane Wilma in 2005 when it hit southwest Florida in late October.

The hurricane season took an unusual start. There were eight tropical storms before a hurricane formed. That was Hurricane Irene which affected the Mid-Atlantic and Northeastern U.S. Two tropical storms did hit the U.S. in 2011. Don moved into south Texas in late July and Lee hit the central Louisiana coast in early September.

It was interesting to note that Bermuda was surrounded by several tropical cyclones but none made a direct hit. Powerful Ophelia steered well to the east sparing the island.

We’ll take a look at the upcoming 2012 hurricane season at a later date.

Rich Johnson – Tropicalweather.net
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The 2011 Atlantic Hurricane Season as of Late September

The Tropics

The Atlantic tropical hurricane season has been very interesting this year. In line with about the past fifteen years, hurricane activity in the Atlantic basin has been up. So far we have had fifteen named storms, with still a few months of the hurricane season left to squeeze out more. What is so unusual is that only three have become hurricanes. Very roughly, about 50% or more of the named storms become hurricanes. As of now, only three of the fifteen have become hurricanes and one of those is marginal if it even was a hurricane.

I don’t think that anyone is complaining except possibly the storm chasers who want to see mayhem. Right now were batting at about a 20% rate of tropical storms becoming hurricanes (13% if only two). Windshear – strong winds aloft are tearing the storms apart and not allowing them to strengthen. Hopefully it stays like this the rest of the season!

Be sure to check out my forecasts on the message boards at Tropicalweather.net

Rich Johnson – Tropicalweather.net
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Katia expected to become a hurricane soon

Katia in eastern Atlantic

Katia is expected to become a hurricane during the next 24 hours and possibly a major one after that. Preliminary forecasts keep Katia north of the Caribbean, but possibly may affect Bermuda early next week. It’s too early to tell yet.

Be sure to check out my forecasts on the message boards at Tropicalweather.net. Also, it you are a fan of facebook check out my tropicalweathr.net facebook page and hit “like” – thanks!

Rich Johnson – Tropicalweather.net
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Hurricane Irene over the northeastern Bahamas

Hurricane Irene is not actually a cat 3 hurricane at this point. Hurricane Hunter recon aircraft and IR satellite imagery do not support this strength. The Hurricane Center is likely keeping the wind up for the sake of continuity. Hurricane Irene is still expected to strengthen and move north toward the U.S. east coast. This will not only be a hurricane that affects the coast, but large cities from Washington D.C. to Boston. New York City as well.

Be sure to check out my forecasts on the message boards at Tropicalweather.net. Also, it you are a fan of facebook check out my tropicalweathr.net facebook page and hit “like” – thanks!

Rich Johnson – Tropicalweather.net
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Irene to head up U.S. east coast this week

Irene in the Bahamas

Irene is strengthening rapidly today as it moves into the central Bahamas. It is likely to affect the eastern U.S. coast especially from North Carolina to New England. I will be busy updating my forecasts. Be sure to check out my forecasts on the message boards at Tropicalweather.net. Also, it you are a fan of facebook check out my tropicalweathr.net facebook page and hit “like” – thanks!

Rich Johnson – Tropicalweather.net
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Irene heading into the northern Caribbean

Irene near the Leewards

Tropical storm Irene will be disturbing travelers and residents of the northern Caribbean, Bahamas, Turks and Caicos and U.S. eastern seaboard over the next seven days. The track of Irene will be extremely important. As of this time, it appears that the track of Irene will take it over the northern Antilles then over or just east of Florida. The more land Irene encounters the more the circulation will get disturbed and inhibit development, especially Hispaniola (Dominican Republic and Haiti). A big concern is still the potential for flash flooding in Haiti where there is a history of large loss of life from tropical cyclones.

For interests in the U.S. the more favorable track would be directly up the Florida peninsula and into the Southeastern U.S. This would allow for beneficial rain and stop any further development. Keep in mind that there would possibly be problems with flash flooding, isolated tornadoes and wind / surge damage farther south. If Irene stays a little east of Florida, strengthening would continue increasing the damage potential from Florida into the Southeastern / Mid-Atlantic states.

It would be wise to follow the progress of Irene if you live or will be traveling in these threat areas. Remember – now is the time to prepare for the possible impacts from a hurricane, not the day before! Be safe and God bless!

Be sure to check out my forecasts on the message boards at Tropicalweather.net

Rich Johnson – Tropicalweather.net
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