Posted by Hurricane Guy on June 14, 2009
Tropical sunset over the western Caribbean
An upper air low pressure system has continued to bring lots clouds with scattered showers to the western Caribbean. The heaviest showers have been near Jamaica to Honduras and Nicaragua. The good news is that there are no organized low pressure areas and winds aloft do not favor development.
Travelers cruising to the western Caribbean will see unsettled conditions for a few days. Please pass along any comments how we can help you with our tropical weather reporting while traveling to the tropics!
Rich Johnson
Tropicalweather.net
Tropical Weather and Travel Message Boards
This entry was posted on June 14, 2009 at 4:37 pm and is filed under Weather, travel.
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jef said
Dear Mrs, Mr, we’re travelling to Martinique the first week of July. Can you already forecast now wath the possibility for a hurricane will be that period ?
Kind regards,
Jef
Hurricane Guy said
Hi Jef,
We forecast one week ahead of less. Many times a tropical system hasn’t even formed over a week in advance. A good example is that a low can spin up in the Gulf of Mexico and make landfall a day or two later.
There is little – although not impossible chance that you would see a hurricane. Early July is not in the main hurricane season which starts mid August. I would have no problem on booking a trip to Martinique or any other Caribbean location in July.
Hurricane Guy
http://www.tropicalweather.net
Doug said
do you have a weather forecast for Jamaica starting July 12th? We’re traveling there for the week beginning the 12th
Hurricane Guy said
Hi Doug,
I usually don’t rely much on long range forecasts, although once in a while the models do pick up one a week or more out. Those are typically the long track tropical cyclones that form off of the coast of Africa and take many days to cross the Atlantic. With that being said, the models don’t have anything interesting into the first part of next week for Jamaica.
You can expect a tropical wave to move by once every two or three days bringing a few more showers. Sometimes the TUTT or upper air trough will be near by and bring lots of storms for a few days.
July is not very active overall. The real hurricane season starts in mid August climatologicaly speaking.
Doug said
thank you. So if it rains it’s usually just a passing shower?
Hurricane Guy said
No worries Mon.
Usually it’s just a passing shower. Many of the Caribbean Islands have a passing shower. Tropical waves and upper lows bring an increase in showers that last a day, sometimes two.
The last time that I was in St. Thomas on a cruise we had a squall then more showers later at the beach. It didn’t ruin the day at all.
You just don’t want to get a hurricane….and the odd are very low that you would be affected by one at any one exact spot in July.
Hurricane Guy said
I forgot to mention, the driest time for Caribbean travel is generally in late Winter…..February and March. It’s common for showers to become more prevalent in late summer and early Autumn, especially August and September and October.